基于模糊信息论的血吸虫病媒介（钉螺）遥感监测方法研究

Schistosomiasis is a serious vector-borne parasitic disease that menaces human health and affects human life.Snail is its unique intermediate host, quickly and accurately obtaining the distribution and density of snail, and taking effective snail control measures is the key to reduce the risk of schistosomiasis transmission. Remote sensing technology has the advantages of rapid acquiring up-to-date and continuous information over a large geographical area, especially in inaccessible regions, and the survival of the snail is governed by various environmental factors. Then remote sensing can be used to characterize and monitor environmental factors related to snail breeding and reproduction, and become a powerful means to monitor the snail. Considering the relationship between the snail and various environmental factors are very complex, the fuzzy information theory was combined with multi-source remote sensing data and products, quantitative remote sensing, as well as spatial analysis of the Geographic Information System to analyze the relationship between snail density and environmental factors. The quantitative suitability of remote sensing environmental parameters for snail breeding is studied. Subsequently a new remote sensing monitoring model of snail was developed, which can enhance the remote sensing monitoring capabilities of the vector-borne parasitic disease-schistosomiasis and provide the theoretical foundation and technical support for snail prevention and control.

血吸虫病是严重危害人类健康的媒介型寄生虫病，作为其唯一的中间宿主，钉螺孳生范围和密度的准确监测，对制定灭螺措施、进行有效的血吸虫病防治具有重要价值。日臻成熟的遥感技术具有探测范围广、不受地面条件约束等特点，可为钉螺孳生环境特征的长时间动态监测提供区别于传统地面查螺方式的丰富的数据源支持，是当前遥感和公共卫生交叉领域的研究热点。由于钉螺与其孳生环境因子之间的关系非常复杂，是当前遥感监测不确定性的重要来源之一，本研究将引入模糊信息论这一突破经典数学的革命性崭新理论，融合当前多源遥感数据及产品，以及先进的定量遥感技术和空间研究方面的技术积累，在定量化研究各种遥感环境因子对钉螺孳生适宜度关系的基础上，建立能定量化反演钉螺分布范围和密度的遥感监测模型，开展基于模糊信息论的钉螺遥感监测方法研究，提升对血吸虫病这一重大媒介型寄生虫疾病的遥感监测能力，为血吸虫病防控提供理论基础和技术支持。

本项目向提升对血吸虫病这一重大传染性疾病的遥感监测能力，以我国洞庭湖地区为主要研究区域，从血吸虫病中间宿主钉螺入手，引入模糊信息论这一突破经典数学的革命性崭新学科，融合当前多源遥感数据及产品，以及先进的定量遥感技术和空间研究方面的技术积累，开展基于模糊信息论的钉螺遥感监测模型建模研究，为血吸虫病防控提供理论基础和技术支持。具体的研究成果如下：.（1）提出了遥感反演环境特征参数对钉螺孳生适宜度分析方法：提出了建立各个环境特征参数对钉螺孳生适宜度的定量关系——隶属度函数，在统计分析钉螺的栖息习性及对环境的适应性的基础上，基于T-S模糊神经网络，分别建立了植被指数、地表温度、穗帽变换亮度分量/土壤湿度、土壤水分、距离水体距离、高程等遥感参数对钉螺孳生适宜度的隶属度函数。.（2）构建了基于T-S模糊理论的钉螺遥感监测定量模型：为了解决当前钉螺遥感监测以定性分析为主，缺乏定量模型的问题，基于T-S模糊理论，不断引入影响钉螺孳生的遥感参数，通过参数辨识和结构辨识，确定了模型的输入参数、模糊规则和最优的定量化表达关系，建立了一个能够定量化表达的钉螺遥感监测模型。.（3）针对洞庭湖地区的钉螺孳生环境预测及验证：针对洞庭湖地区，将本研究建立的钉螺遥感监测模型与传统的多元线性回归方法和“冬陆夏水”方法的预测结果做比较分析，结果表明：无论是对钉螺分布地理位置的预测，还是对钉螺密度的预测，本研究建立的钉螺遥感监测模型均明显优于上述两种方法。