奖励式众筹中投资者决策行为机理分析及服务策略设计

Because of the fragmented project information, the interactive and observable investment decisions in the online crowdfunding market, funders are more likely to be affected by many irrational factors such as self-emotion, self-cognitive power and others’ investment decisions. What is more, funders usually do not satisfy the rational agents assumption used in many traditional finance models. Our prior studies show the evidence of funders’ irrational behavior and their diversified influences. However, how to explain the mechanism of funders’ irrational behavior is still an interesting topic necessary to be further examined. In this research program, we choose the popular online reward-based crowdfunding market in China as our research object and conduct comparative static and dynamic analysis of funders’ investment behavior based on the behavioral economics theory. Specifically, we do the following research work: (1) Exploring individual funder’s cognitive bias and irrational investment process in the online crowdfunding market; (2) Examining individual funder’s self-learning behavior and state-dependent investment behavior during her repeat investments. (3) Analyzing the heterogeneity of funders and their investment patterns; (4) Examining the information cascade effect when investors dynamically make their investment decisions; (5) Designing optimal crowdfunding service strategies after considering funders’ behavior issues in the online crowdfunding market. On one hand, our research makes theoretical contribution to the existing behavioral research of funders in the online crowdfunding market by unlocking their investment behavior mechanism and proposing smart service strategies design models based their irrational investment behavior. On the other hand, we also make practical contribution by improving the efficiency of crowdfunding platform in the Internet Financial Era.

众筹中项目信息的碎片化、投资的关联性和可观测性使得投资者决策时更易受个人情绪、认知能力和他人决策等非理性因素干扰，决策者也很难满足传统金融模型中理性人的假设。因此研究众筹中投资者的微观决策行为模式十分必要且重要。申请者前期工作证实了投资者非理性行为的存在性及其影响因素的多样性，但系统解释两者的作用机理却有待进一步探索。鉴于此，本项目以行为经济学为理论基础，以我国主流的奖励式众筹为代表，对众筹投资个体和群体的决策行为进行比较静态和动态分析，研究：(1)个体投资者的认知偏差及非理性决策过程；(2)个体投资者连续投资中的自学习及状态依赖行为；(3)投资群体异质性与投资行为模式；(4) 群体动态投资中信息串流行为；(5)融合投资者行为特征的众筹服务策略设计与评估。项目研究有较大理论意义（阐明众筹投资者决策行为的微观机理和构建有效融资服务策略设计模型），也有重大实践价值（提升众筹融资服务系统效率）。

作为金融科技创新的一种新模式，互联网众筹模式在全球范围内发展迅猛。从实际运作过程来看，众筹融资中项目信息的碎片化，投资决策的关联性和可观测性，使得投资者极容易受诸多非理性因素的影响并表现出非理性的投资行为。. 课题以行为经济学和认知心理学为理论基础，对众筹投资个体和群体的决策行为特征、众筹平台运营服务策略展开研究，详细分析了（1）个体投资者在多次重复投资过程的认知偏差，自学习及状态依赖行为；（2）实证检验并剖析了众筹投资者以信息串流为表征的群体行为及其产生机理；（3）建模分析并评估了众筹投资者行为、投资者留存以及众筹平台信息披露设计策略之间的交互关系。课题研究在理论上深度讨论了众筹投资者的各种非理性的个体及群体行为特征，并详细阐述这些行为的产生机理及影响，在方法和应用情境上丰富并发展了现有的行为经济学和认知心理学研究。在高效率的众筹服务策略设计或者监管实践上，研究结果能够给众筹平台管理者和众筹行业监管者提供深度参考意见。. 课题研究产生了5篇高水平论文，其中2篇发表在信息系统领域一流期刊Decision Support Systems (JCR 一区), 另外3篇在分别在信息系统领域和运营管理领域顶级期刊：Information Systems Research, Production and Operations Management,和Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 评审中。课题负责人及其合作者受邀在国内外知名会议上（如：CSWIM 2019, CIST 2019）报告论文2次。除此之外，通过本项目，课题组共培养和指导了2 名博士生，1 名硕士生和4名本科生。