考虑水转化和不确定性的干旱灌区水资源优化管理模型研究

Optimal allocation of irrigation water resources is the basis of efficient use of agricultural water resources in arid regions, which is usually affected by the water transformation process. Moreover, agricultural water management systems involve in a variety of uncertain factors, mainly including hydrological and management uncertainties. Based on this background, this study focuses on the optimization irrigation water resources allocation in irrigation districts considering the water transformation process and uncertainty so as to promote the sustainable development of agriculture in arid regions. The research contents include: the dynamic evolution law of agricultural hydrology and management factors and its uncertainty characterization; the optimization irrigation water resources allocation model under uncertainty in irrigation districts; and the coupled model of optimization irrigation water resources allocation and its application in the arid irrigation districts considering the water transformation process and uncertainty. The characteristics and innovations of this study are presents as follows: 1.combining the dynamic evolution of agricultural hydrology and management factors with the characterization of uncertainty; 2.constructing coupled water allocation optimization - simulation model considering water transformation process and uncertainty, reflecting the interactions between the coupling process of optimization and simulation, to finally achieve the optimal allocation of water resources in irrigation districts under uncertainty. This study will focus on the multi-objective and multi-factor irrigation water allocation model characteristics, combined with the impact of a variety of constraints, and ultimately to obtain efficient and optimal water allocation decision-making solutions for the arid irrigation districts in northwest China under the consideration of water transformation process and uncertainty.

灌溉水资源优化配置是旱区农业水资源高效利用的基础，其通常受水转化过程的影响。同时，农业水管理系统涉及多种不确定性因素，主要包括水文和管理不确定性因素。本研究以此为背景，拟开展考虑水转化过程和不确定性的灌区水资源优化配置研究，以促进旱区农业可持续发展。研究内容包括：农业水文与管理要素动态演化规律及其不确定性表征、不确定性灌区水资源优化配置模型及考虑水转化过程和不确定性的干旱灌区水资源优化配置模型与应用。本研究的特色和创新之处有：1.把农业水文及管理因素动态演化规律和不确定性表征结合起来研究；2.构建考虑水转化和不确定性的水资源配置优化-模拟耦合模型，反映优化-模拟耦合过程的相互影响，实现不确定性条件下灌区水资源动态优化配置。本研究将围绕多目标、多要素的灌溉水调配模型特点，结合多种约束的影响，最终获得考虑水转化过程和不确定性的西北干旱灌区水资源高效调配和优化配水决策方案。

本研究针对农业不同因子的特性，采用了具体的方法对农业水文与管理因子的动态演化规律进行分析，提出了其不确定性的分析方法。对于农业水文要素，通过结合使用Penman-Monteith方法、遥感信息（MOD16/PET）和多元线性回归获得了空间作物/生态植被需水和降尺度降水数据集；此外，运用vine copula描述水资源系统中随机变量的多重相依结构并进行模拟。对于农业管理要素：利用云模型定量表征了农产品价格的不确定性；采用Nerlove供给模型预测了作物种植结构；通过长时间序列的研究区遥感影像分析了政策驱动条件下植被覆盖及土地利用时空变化情况。.基于农业系统中不确定因子的表征，构建了不确定性条件下多尺度多过程的干旱灌区不确定性水资源优化模型框架。首先，建立了区域部门间—行政区不同作物间—不同灌区间—不同网格间的干旱灌区单尺度水资源优化模型体系，在此基础上，开发了多层多目标规划模型以实现干旱农区水资源的多层多目标协同调控。另一方面，为了解决传统水资源优化配置模型不能量化水资源转化过程对于配水结果的影响，本研究对水转化过程进行描述与模拟，并将其耦合进水资源优化模型中，开发了不确定性条件下灌区地表水—地下水资源配置的优化与模拟耦合技术。本研究围绕多尺度、多目标、多要素的灌溉水调配模型特点，结合多种约束的影响，最终获得了考虑水转化过程和不确定性的西北干旱灌区水资源高效调配和优化配水决策方案。