海洋生态经济系统多主体协同治理研究：行为取向、动态博弈与策略仿真

The ocean has become the "second territory" for human survival and development, it is the main component of the eco-economic system. The coordination of behaviors and the distribution of rights and responsibilities among the multiple actors in the marine ecology, economy and society are the key to the coordinated and sustainable evolution of the marine eco-economic system. It is also the core to overcome the current problems from extensive development of the marine economy, the debris management of marine ecology, and the implementation bias of marine policies and regulations. This topic will firstly evaluate the fairness, participation, efficiency and effectiveness of the current marine eco-economic system governance, pointing out the existing problems and dilemmas; secondly, build a multi-governance structure composed of the central government, local government, producers, consumers and the public, analyze the conflicts of interest appeals and governance behaviors among the five types of actors; thirdly, by using static game and dynamic game, prove the possibility of checks and balances and cooperative governance among the actors, obtaining the value concept, behavior mode and role for each actor; Finally, based on SD simulation, clear up the scope of rights, responsibilities and interests for each actor, form five cooperative governance strategies under the leadership of the central government, local government, producers, consumers and the public, integrate and optimize all tools of governance, match collaborative governance strategies and tools to the realities of the 11 coastal provinces. This topic will provide theoretical basis and practical means for promoting the formation of a mutually beneficial, balanced, efficient and stable governance community for all parties in the marine eco-economic system, provide decision-making support for the construction of marine powers and ecological civilization. It has important academic value and practical significance.

海洋已成为人类赖以生存与发展的“第二疆土”，是生态经济系统的主要组成部分。海洋生态、经济与社会领域多主体的行为协调与权责利分配是克服海洋经济粗放式发展、海洋生态碎片化治理、海洋政策法规执行性偏差等顽症的关键。课题将首先，对当前海洋生态经济系统治理的公平性、参与性、效率性和有效性进行评判，指明存在的问题与困境；其次，构建由中央政府、地方政府、生产者、消费者、公众构成的多元治理结构，解析5类主体的利益诉求冲突和治理行为背离；再次，以双方静态和三方动态博弈，证明各主体彼此制衡和协同治理的可能，得出各主体应有的价值理念、行为方式和角色作用；最后，基于SD仿真，廓清各主体权责利范围，形成不同主体主导下的5种协同治理策略，并将其与沿海11省市的实际情况相匹配。课题将为促进海洋各方形成互惠、稳定、高效的治理共同体提供理论依据和实践手段，为海洋强国和生态文明建设提供决策支持，具有重要学术价值和和现实意义。

目前人类活动对海洋生态系统的影响日益增强，导致了全球性不同尺度的海洋生态破坏和瓦解，也使海洋经济和沿海社会的可持续发展受到了一定阻碍。根据生态经济学理论，海洋生态经济系统由海洋生态、海洋经济和沿海社会子系统经由能量、物质、信息、价值流动相辅构成，是具有海陆过渡性质的特殊生态经济系统，具有显著的脆弱性、开放性、组元大量性、强非线性耦合等特征，是一个涉及到多方主体复合交叉、相互作用的典型复杂系统。该系统的特点决定了单一主体治理难以有效解决其整体协调、持续发展问题。协同治理是自然科学中协同论和社会科学中“多中心”治理理论的交叉领域，近年来在国际上被广泛应用于解决复杂公共问题，本质是通过在共同处理复杂社会公共事务过程中相互关系的协调，实现多元主体的结构耦合和共同行动，从根本上弥补政府、市场或社会单一主体治理的局限性。本课题源于中国海洋强国和生态文明建设要求，融合“多中心治理”理论，开展海洋生态经济系统的发展状态评估、治理效果诊断、治理困境解析、多主体行为冲突博弈、协同治理策略仿真、协同治理机制设计与工具优化等问题的跨学科研究，提出新时代下中国海洋生态经济系统多主体协同治理的理论依据和实践手段，是期望为解决当前海洋领域各主体权利分配不公、治理参与度差、治理效率低、治理有效性不足等问题提供决策支持，为缓解中国海洋生态恶化、海洋经济增长放缓、沿海社会转型等风险助力，促进海洋各方形成互惠、稳定、高效的共同体，以助力国家海洋强国战略目标更好地实现。