蔬菜价格时空传导机理及异地关联预警研究

In recent years, the considerable fluctuation of vegetable price has become a widespread concern to the society. Since the obvious existence of spatio-temporal scaling effect in fluctuation of vegetable price, the essence of price change in vegetable could only be truly reflected by coupling and deducting multi-sources with multi-scales. Taking spatio-temporal transmission as breakthrough point, this program aims to reveal the mechanism of spatio-temporal transmission in vegetable price by analyzing the patterns and factors affecting the price fluctuation, building information management system of vegetable price, and establishing long-run monitoring stations for vegetable production and marketing. In the view of space, time, variety, and sales chain, this program creates a seasonal SVAR, researched the transmission correlation, path, speed, strength, and continuation of vegetable price through quantitative research, and thus builds a model set for vegetable price with spatio-temporal transmission. This program also creates the early warning technique of multi-region correlation, confirms the warning threshold of target place, and analyzes the source of transmission and critical threshold. Moreover, this program realizes visualization of three-dimensional display technique and uses early warning model of multi-region correlation by redeveloping ArcGIS. Taking Beijing as an example, this program simulates the changing factors with the effect of spatio-temporal transmission to achieve the emulation of spatio-temporal transmission in vegetable price. Based on spatial and temporal perspective, within information technology, this program tries to make a theoretical, technical, and practical breakthrough in the mechanism of vegetable price.

近年来，蔬菜价格持续大幅波动，成为了社会普遍关注的焦点。蔬菜价格波动存在明显的时空尺度效应，只有通过多源多尺度的耦合与推绎研究才能反映蔬菜价格变化的实质。本项目拟以时空传导为切入点，分析蔬菜价格波动规律、影响因素，研建蔬菜价格信息管理系统，完善并建立蔬菜生产与市场长期定位监测点，揭示蔬菜价格时空传导机理；基于空间、时间、品种、销售链视角，创新季节性结构化向量自回归模型，定量研究蔬菜价格传导关系、路径、速度、强度、持续性，构建蔬菜价格时空传导综合模型组；创新蔬菜价格异地关联预警技术，确定预警目标地警限，探究“传导源地”及其“临界阈值”并实证分析；运用ArcGIS二次研发、可视化三维展示技术，以北京为例模拟要素变化的时空传导效应，实现蔬菜价格时空传导及异地关联预警模拟仿真，提出蔬菜产销政策建议。本项目基于时空视角、融入信息技术，力图实现蔬菜价格机制理论上、技术上、实践上的突破。

蔬菜价格合理波动事关国计民生，蔬菜价格变化是由多种因素造成的；探索蔬菜价格波动规律，建立价格波动异常预警机制是保障蔬菜市场合理波动和平稳运行的关键。本项目主要完成了以下研究内容：通过建立完善蔬菜生产、市场长期定位监测点，获取蔬菜供需信息数据；以北京、河北、天津、山东等12个省市的白菜、萝卜、黄瓜、西红柿、大蒜、豆角6种蔬菜为研究对象，结合调研资料，探索了蔬菜价格的波动规律，并从长期影响及短期影响两方面进行了剖析，揭示了蔬菜价格的时空传导机理及特征；创新了多源多尺度数据融合技术，搭建了蔬菜价格信息管理系统；基于时间、空间、品种及销售链视角，引进季节性因子分析，对蔬菜价格传导的关系、路径、速度、强度等性质做出了探索及研究；提出了蔬菜价格异地关联预警的技术方案，判别了预警目标地的蔬菜价格传导源地，划分了传导源地的“临界阈值”；运用ArcGIS二次开发及三维可视化技术，实现了蔬菜价格时空传导及异地关联预警的仿真模拟。该项目成果可实现基于时空的蔬菜价格异常波动的关联预警，为及时应对蔬菜价格异常波动提供支撑。