基于乘客感知价值的接运公交调度优化方法研究

Based on the research of passenger perceived value, the optimization methods of feeder buses dispatching will be carried out to establish a system of rail transit with feeder buses meeting the passenger needs and preferences and taking into account the interests of operator. Integrated using the principles of psychology, consumer behavior, marketing, traffic engineering and multivariate statistical analysis, the passenger perceived value will be systematically studied. Firstly, drivers of the passenger perceived value should be identified. Secondly, importance of the components should be evaluated to clear critical drivers. Thirdly, quantitative relationships should be established between key operational index and the passenger perceived value. Finally, the travel mode choice behavior under influence of the level of operational services should be revealed with application of disaggregated theory.The passenger needs and preferences provide a basis for decision-making, which can be distinguished by the research of the passenger perceived value. The feasibility of feeder buses coordination dispatching should be assessed with application of the simulation methods. Based on the simulation results, the logical relationship between the line bus dispatching and coordination dispatching can be established. Then the optimized logical structure system of feeder bus dispatching should be brought forward. The optimization method of feeder bus dispatching should be established with the relationship of the passenger perceived value, the travel mode choice behavior and the cost and income of operator in order to create the excellent passenger perceived value and take into account the interests of operator.Firstly, it can provide an efficient way to recognize real passengers need and preference. Secondly, it can optimize the feeder bus dispatching scientifically and put limited resources on the places where passengers are in great demand. Thirdly, it can provide a theoretical and technical support to improve the attractiveness of public transport system. Finally, it can be of great significance to the implementation of bus priority and achievement of sustainable urban transport development.

以乘客感知价值的研究为基础，构建满足乘客需要和偏好并兼顾运营者利益的"接运公交+轨道交通"系统为目标，开展接运公交调度优化方法的研究。运用心理学、消费者行为学、营销学、交通工程学、多元统计分析技术，识别乘客感知价值构成因素，明晰关键性因素，探索关键运营指标与乘客感知价值的定量关系，建立运营服务水平影响下的出行方式选择行为模型；由此把握乘客需要和偏好，并作为决策依据，应用仿真评估接运公交协调调度可行性条件，建立本线公交调度和协调调度逻辑关系，提出接运公交调度优化逻辑结构系统；以追求优异的乘客感知价值并兼顾运营者利益为目标，研究乘客感知价值、出行方式选择行为及运营者成本和利益三者间的关系，建立接运公交调度优化方法。项目研究将为掌握乘客需要和偏好提供有效途径，科学优化接运公交调度，将有限资源放在乘客最需要的地方，为提高公交吸引力提供理论和技术支持。对落实公交优先，实现交通可持续发展具有重要意义。

以乘客感知价值为研究切入点，构建满足乘客需要和偏好并兼顾运营者利益的“接运公交+轨道交通”系统为研究目标。采用顾客满意度理论和结构方程模型相结合的方法，识别接运公交服务质量的维度和关键性运营指标，研究公交服务质量、感知价值、乘客满意度和乘客忠诚四者间的关系。结果表明：可用性、便利性、可靠性、舒适性和安全性是提高接运公交服务质量5个维度，且在现阶段改善接运公交服务的可用性和舒适性尤为重要；服务质量是决定乘客满意和乘客忠诚的关键因素，表明改善服务质量对于增加接运公交对乘客的吸引力具有非常重要作用。按照乘客心理变化特征将乘客的候车时间划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ四个服务等级，构建隶属度函数并基于隶属度最大原则，划分每一等级的候车时间区间；并利用效用理论和支付意愿理论，研究不同候车时长条件下，乘客感知候车时间的差异，结果表明：Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅳ级服务水平乘客感知候车时间比Ⅰ级服务水平分别增加50%、近300%和540%。基于仿真针对协调调度和非协调调度分别建立成本计算模型，以成本最小为目标，确定适合协调调度的接运公交发车间隔、车头时距方差、车辆到达换乘站点时间方差以及换乘需求和本线客流需求比，为明确适合协调调度的可行性条件提供有效途径和方法。基于上述乘客感知候车时间的研究成果，以追求优异的乘客感知价值并兼顾运营者利益为目标，研究乘客感知价值以及运营者成本和利益之间的互动关系，建立双层规划模型优化接运公交调度。项目研究将为掌握乘客需要和偏好提供有效途径，科学优化接运公交调度，将有限资源放在乘客最需要的地方，为提高公交吸引力提供理论和技术支持。对落实公交优先，实现交通可持续发展具有重要意义。