相依竞争失效产品加速寿命试验与可靠性评估研究

Competing failure is a kind of important failure modes of the product. Most of existing research assumes the competition failure mechanism is independent of each other. This project breakthrough the framework of failure mechanism independent of each other, using the copula function, the Bayes theory, experience Bayes theory and least squares support vector machines and classical statistical theory and methods, and with the aid of the Monte Carlo simulation technology to study the optimal design, statistical inference and reliability assessment in progressive hybrid censoring accelerated life test (ALT) for dependent competing failure products. We will present the optimal design scheme and the corresponding parameter，non- parameter statistics method for single stress multi levels and multi-stress situations in progressive hybrid censoring ALT; We will present the comparison criteria for the constraints cases and optimization of design scheme of different ALT; Using the failure data of accelerated life testing to provide the estimations for the product life parameters (point estimation, interval estimation and confidence limits), and statistical inference method of the reliability function, failure rate and average life of the reliability index will be given. On the basis of theoretical analysis, we will study optimal designs of accelerated life tests and reliability assessment for some kind of industrial products. In this project, we will provide scientific theory basis and method for the engineering practice department used to the reliability design of product and quality management.

竞争失效是产品的一种重要失效模式，关于该类产品可靠性的多数研究均假设失效机理相互独立。本项目突破竞争失效机理相互独立的研究框架，利用Copula函数、贝叶斯理论、经验贝叶斯理论及最小二乘支持向量机和经典的统计理论与方法，并借助MC仿真技术，研究相依竞争失效产品逐步混合截尾加速寿命试验（ALT）的优化设计，统计推断与可靠性评估问题。本项目将提出单应力多水平及多应力场合下，逐步混合截尾ALT的最优设计方案、相应的参数、非参数统计方法；不同ALT优化设计方案的约束条件选取方法，优良性比较准则；利用加速寿命试验的失效数据，研究给出产品寿命参数的估计(点估计、区间估计或置信限)，可靠度函数、失效率及平均寿命等可靠性指标的统计推断方法。在理论分析与研究的基础上以某类工业产品为对象，进行ALT的最优设计及可靠性评估研究, 为工程部门进行产品的可靠性设计、质量管理提供科学的理论依据和方法。

本项目研究工作主要围绕以下问题展开，(1)相依竞争失效产品加速寿命试验的统计推断与可靠性评估；(2)恒定应力、步进应力加速寿命试验的优化设计；(3)加速寿命试验设计方案的比较研究. 研究给出相依竞争失效产品寿命参数与可靠性指标的统计推断方法. 本项目研究工作按原计划执行，已经完成了原计划任务.我们还拓展了部分研究内容，主要是：应力和强度变量相依及多状态情形下，应力-强度模型的可靠性分析与评估. 我们的研究结果为竞争失效产品加速寿命试验的统计推断与可靠性评估提供理论分析与科学方法. 研究工作取得了可喜的成果. 到目前为止，共发表学术论文31篇，其中国际期刊28篇，国内期刊3篇.被SCI检索25篇，EI检索2篇. 培养研究生5名，他们均已经毕业.