基于三维空间变异性的边坡高效可靠度分析与风险评估方法研究

This project aims to investigate efficient reliability and risk assessment of slopes considering three-dimensional spatial variability of geotechnical properties. Two key scientific issues will be investigated, including (1) quantitative characterization for three-dimensional spatial variability of geotechnical properties with limited data, and (2) identification of representative slope failure mechanisms and quantitative slope risk assessment accounting for three-dimensional spatial variability. Several detailed problems underlying the scientific issues will be investigated systematically. The characterization and simulation for three-dimensional spatial variability is explored firstly, which advocates the quantification of geotechnical uncertainty for the case of limited data. Thereafter, an efficient reliability approach integrating multiple calculation models underlying slope stability analysis is proposed to address the computational efficiency involved in conventional slope reliability analysis. Finally, a quantitative risk assessment method is developed for slope systems with multiple failure modes considering three-dimensional spatial variability. This can provide an essential tool to slope risk mitigation for decision-making of managers. In general, this project will propose a reasonable, practical and efficient framework for three-dimensional slope reliability and risk assessment with an integration of spatial variability characterization, efficient reliability evaluation, and quantitative risk assessment. It can provide valuable theoretical foundations and technical supports for risk mitigation of complex engineered slopes.

本项目针对考虑三维空间变异性的边坡高效可靠度分析与风险评估方法开展研究。拟解决2个关键科学问题：有限数据条件下岩土体参数三维空间变异性定量表征方法；考虑三维空间变异性的边坡代表性破坏模式识别方法和定量风险评估方法。围绕科学问题将重点研究以下几方面内容：研究岩土体参数的三维空间变异性定量表征和模拟方法，为有限数据条件下岩土体参数不确定性表征提供技术支持；研究可以综合利用多种边坡稳定性计算模型的高效可靠度分析方法，解决传统边坡可靠度计算方法计算效率较低的难题；研究考虑三维空间变异性的多失效模式边坡系统定量风险评估方法，为管理人员进行边坡风险决策提供参考依据。本项目将提出一整套科学合理、切实可行、高效实用的集定量表征空间变异性、高效可靠度分析、定量风险评估为一体的三维边坡可靠度分析与风险评估方法，从而为复杂工程边坡灾害防治提供理论依据和技术支撑。

本项目针对考虑三维空间变异性的边坡高效可靠度分析与风险评估方法开展研究。拟解决2个关键科学问题：有限数据条件下岩土体参数三维空间变异性定量表征方法；考虑三维空间变异性的边坡代表性破坏模式识别方法和定量风险评估方法。围绕科学问题重点研究了以下内容：岩土体参数的三维空间变异性定量表征和模拟方法；综合利用多种边坡稳定性计算模型的高效可靠度分析方法；考虑三维空间变异性的多失效模式边坡系统定量风险评估方法。取得主要成果包括：融合多源勘察信息的边坡土性参数二维随机场模型表征方法、基于土性参数随机场模型的边坡高维可靠度问题降维法、基于土性参数随机场模型的边坡代表性失效模式识别及可靠度分析方法、基于不同勘察数据的边坡稳定可靠度协同式更新方法等。. 项目执行期间发表SCI收录论文16篇、EI收录论文2篇。在学术会议做大会报告或特邀报告7次。研究成果获教育部自然科学一等奖1项，国际学术奖励1项。培养博士生4人，硕士生3人。博士生肖特博士论文获得首届全国高等学校水利类专业优秀研究生学位论文。项目负责人李典庆荣获2019年国际岩土工程安全协会突出贡献奖（GEOSNet Award）、2020年爱思唯尔中国高被引科学家和全球前10万顶尖科学家榜单。研究成果“水工岩土工程不确定性分析与可靠性控制”获2020年教育部自然科学一等奖；引进海外高层次青年学者2名。