家庭债务，需求不足与经济增长-基于家庭流动性约束机制探讨

When the internal risks associated with rapid credit growth, debt overhang, and the resulting systemic financial risks weigh on China’s economy like the “sword of Damocles”, how to prevent major risks becomes the first important task in China. In this project, we will analysis the macro effects of accumulating household debt and try to find a fundamental way to prevent major risks. All through the project, we highlight the liquidity channel of household debt overhang after seriously analysis the reason behind the accumulating household debt. When doing this, we will distinguish the credit demand side factor and credit supply side factor and highlight the importance of preference shock and benchmark interest rate reduction. Then we will empirically analysis the effect of soaring household debt on household consumption using macro province-level panel data and micro household survey data. After control the misallocation channel of real investment, we will estimate the effect of household debt on economic growth. During the analysis, we want to highlight the liquidity channel of household debt overhang, and then estimate the trend of liquidity constraints household faced over the past 20 years. Given the empirical evidence, we will build a structural model with China feature, which incorporates the rising housing price, household debt overhang, increasing liquidity constraints and decreasing household consumption, to identify the importance of each channel and do some policy analysis. Finally, we will estimate the effect of the reduction of aggregate demand induced by the increasing household liquidity constraints to firm leverage and to investigate whether corporate debt can be replaced by household debt overhang.

本项目立足于我国债务问题愈加严重，防范系统性金融风险成为当前主要任务的现实国情，以家庭债务对家庭流动性的影响并进而影响总需求为切入点，在细致分析了家庭债务累积的供给侧与需求侧的影响因素后，重点研究了家庭债务对家庭总消费，进而对经济增长的影响。在此过程中，本项目还特别关注了该影响产生的机制，即家庭流动性约束的变动趋势，以及其中家庭债务起到的关键作用。同时，根据这些实证证据，并结合中国房地产市场特殊国情，本项目将尝试构建一个中国特色的结构模型，从理论上解释实证发现。最后，本项目还通过将家庭数据与企业数据进行有机结合，分析家庭流动性收紧引起的总需求不足对企业债务的影响情况，从总需求的角度指出家庭债务与企业债务间的联系。

本项目系统分析了家庭债务的宏观影响，以及家庭流动性约束对疫情期间消费下降的放大作用，进一步地，通过构建中国特色的家庭住房与债务选择结构模型，本项目对这些现象的机制进行了理解，并对具体的房地产调控政策进行了分析。本项目的主要工作包括：.（1）在实证方面，首先，探讨了家庭流动性收紧的原因，指出房地产火爆导致的“房奴效应”，而不是收入降低产生的“收入效应”，才是家庭流动性收紧的主要原因。其次，本项目进一步检验了家庭债务对企业部门降杠杆，以及宏观经济增长的影响，指出部门间统筹协调降杠杆才是解除债务危机的思路。.（2）面对突如其来的新冠疫情，本项目探讨了家庭流动性收紧对疫情冲击的放大作用；进一步地，本课题进一步探讨了疫情后失业率下降较快，但消费恢复缓慢的问题。.（3）在理论方面，通过引入内生的家庭住房选择以及长期债务，并考虑到中国没有住房抵押贷款的现实，构建了中国特色的住房选择模型，并分析了宽松货币政策的短期和中长期影响；同时，针对中国多项调控政策只针对二套房的情况，构建了多套房选择模型分析信贷政策中的“认房不认贷”，“认贷不认房”等政策的效果。