印度季风、西风交界区典型流域冰川储量与湖泊水量变化对气候的响应及耦合关系研究

Changes in glacier and lake and its impact on water resource and hydrological cycle on the Tibetan Plateau is a hot scientific issue of international concern. The concerning research of Indian monsoon-westerly junction zone is weak currently, while glacier and lake changes in this region is complicated, related issues should be clarified as quickly as possible, the study of response of glacier volume change and lake volume change to climate change and their coupling relation in typical basin is a key to further understanding of the relevant issues. The application project aims to obtain high precision data of valley glacier movement, volume change and lake level and volume change based on multi stage optical and radar remote sensing data, ice thickness of field differential GPS measuring, water level of gauge change data; establish a statistical glacier volume change model involves ice flow, reveal the impact of glacial dynamic flow on glacier volume changes, the mechanism of glacier change and project the glacier volume change in the future; simulate the impact process and contribution of glacier volume changes to lake volume change using water balance model, clear driving mechanism of lake volume changes; elucidate the response of glacial volume and lake volume change of climate and their coupling relationship combined with the meteorological data. The results will improve quantitative understanding of glacier, lake variation response and their interaction under the background of climate change in the Indian monsoon-westerly junction zone, clearly answer contribution of glaciers and climate to lake change. The result of this project can provide a reference for developing response measures against local water resources changes, ecological environment protection, and lake resource development.

青藏高原冰川和湖泊变化及其对水资源与水循环的影响是国际关注的热点科学问题。印度季风、西风交界区目前研究薄弱，冰川、湖泊变化又很复杂，问题亟待澄清，典型流域冰川储量与湖泊水量变化对气候的响应及耦合关系研究是深入认识有关问题的关键。本项目拟利用多期光学、雷达遥感数据结合实地差分GPS测量冰川运动速度、厚度变化及水位计记录水位变化，获得流域冰川运动、储量变化与湖泊水位、水量变化高精度数据，建立考虑冰川运动的储量变化统计模型，揭示冰川运动对储量变化的影响、冰川变化机理并模拟未来储量变化；利用水量平衡模型模拟冰川储量变化对湖泊水量变化的影响过程与贡献；结合气象数据，阐明冰川储量、湖泊水量变化对气候的响应及耦合关系。研究成果有助于定量理解印度季风、西风交界区气候变化背景下冰川、湖泊变化及相互作用，明确回答冰川与气候对湖泊变化的贡献，同时也有利于当地应对水资源变化措施的制定、生态环境保护和湖泊资源开发。

青藏高原冰川和湖泊变化及其对水资源与水循环的影响是国际关注的热点科学问题。印度季风、西风交界区目前研究薄弱，冰川、湖泊变化又很复杂，问题亟待澄清，典型流域冰川储量与湖泊水量变化对气候的响应及耦合关系研究是深入认识有关问题的关键。本项目拟利用多期光学、雷达遥感数据结合实地差分GPS测量冰川运动速度、厚度变化及水位计记录水位变化，获得流域冰川运动、储量变化与湖泊水位、水量变化高精度数据。研究发现：（1）第三极地区从喜马拉雅山向喀喇昆仑山和昆仑山，消融机制从温度、辐射驱动动力消融中温度占主导过渡为温度、辐射驱动动力消融中辐射占主导。（2）冰川的地形因子对于冰川分布、冰川运动和消融有重要的影响作用。（3）冰川区≥0℃积温、气象站点≥10℃积温增加和辐射增加对于冰川消融有积极影响。（4）冰川区≥0℃积温、气象站点≥10℃积温增加和辐射增加导致的冰川和冻土消融增加对湖泊水量增长有积极影响，但不是湖泊水量变化的主要驱动力，降水增加和蒸发减少是主要驱动力，湖泊流域地形因子对于湖泊水量变化有重要影响。.