基于震级、距离和场地条件的灾情准实时估计方法

The objectives are to (1) propose an alternative method for development of seismic fragility surface for reinforced concrete buildings based on earthquake magnitude, distance from seismic to the site and site condition by nonlinear time-history analysis, and (2) provide satisfactory measure for structural response and observed selective structural damage characters influenced by several aspects such as intnesity, spectrum and duration of ground motions other than single parameter for characterizing ground motions, and (3) propose a near real time seismic damage estimation methodology. The seismic source, propagation path, site studied structure are coupled to assess the seismic performance of structures and to construct damage distribution surfaces by means of nonlinear time history analysis. Real and synthetic accelerograms which include information about intensity, spectrum and duration of ground motions will be chosen/computed based on a consideration of the magnitude, distance and site condition. The influence from engineering characters of the ground motion such intensity, spectrum and duration on seismic structural behavior and structural damage are considered. A methodology for building fragility surfaces based on damage calculation and through numerical dynamic analysis of the reinforce concrete frame building will be proposed. The fragility surfaces will be built to represent the probability distribution among the different damage states for any given magnitude, distance and site condition. The influences from magnitude, distance, site condition, intensity, spectrum and duration of ground motions on damage probability distribution are characterized. The fragility surfaces and the real time seismology will be used to proposed near real time seismic damage assessment methodology. After an earthquake occurs it can be used immediately to estimate the seismic damage distribution for the specified earthquake according to the paramters of the earthauke magnitude and location. It is very important for earthquake emergency response decision support and to propose real time earthquake disaster.

建立基于震级、距离和场地条件的RC框架结构破坏概率分布分析方法，揭示多因素影响的地震选择性破坏特征，建立灾情准实时估计方法。本课题提出将震源、路径、场地及结构作为整体进行研究的思路，依据震级、距离和场地条件选择实际记录或由人造地震动法合成地震动时程样本群集，以包含峰值、频谱和持时信息的地震动时程作为动力反应分析的输入，借助结构动力非线性分析途径，定量探索震级、距离和场地条件及依赖于这些因素的地震动峰值、频率和持时对结构地震反应及其破坏概率分布的影响，构建基于震级、距离和场地分类的易损性曲面，给出在不同震级下结构破坏概率随距离和场地条件变化的空间分布。定量揭示多因素影响的地震选择性破坏特征。将基于震级、距离及场地分类的易损性曲面与实时地震学结合，提出灾情准实时估计方法，可实现由实时测定的震级及地点信息，快速估计受灾程度及空间分布。这对建立实时地震灾害学有科学价值，对灾害应急决策有应用前景。

本研究提出了将震源、传播路径、局部场地及工程结构相耦合的地震易损性分析的研究途径，提出了基于震源特性、传播路径和局部场地条件的典型钢筋混凝土框架结构易损性分析方法，建立了基于震级、距离及场地条件的灾情准实时估计方法。以依赖于震源特性、传播路径及场地条件且包含峰值、频谱和持时信息的地震动时程作为结构地震反应分析的地震动输入，借助动力非线性分析方法，定量探索震级、距离和场地条件及依赖于这些因素的地震动峰值、频率和持时对结构地震反应及其破坏概率分布的影响，构建了基于震级、距离和场地分类的多参数易损性曲面，可确定在不同震级下结构破坏概率随距离和场地条件变化的空间分布。将基于震级、距离及场地分类的易损性曲面与实时地震学相结合，依托基于震级、距离和场地条件的易损性曲面及由实时地震学确定的震级和发震地点信息，可快速估计受灾程度及空间分布。所提出的灾情准实时估计方法，对建立实时地震灾害学有科学价值，对灾害应急决策有应用前景。