农村承包土地经营权抵押贷款信用风险生成机理及分担机制研究

Comparing to other loans, the mortgage of farmland contractural and use right (FCUR) shows a higher level of credit risk due to the vulnerability of agriculture, difference of land property right system, inconsistent target between government and financial institutions, as well as the imperfection of risk management system, farmland market,and farmer's credit system. Which leads to a low level of motivation of financial institutions on supplying of FCUR mortgage. However, less attention has given to the risk of FCUR mortgage, credit risk in particular, and establishing a theoretical system. Rarely study pays attention to the credit risk of FCUR mortgage from the perspective of financial institutions under the China's property right system. Thererfore, based on the theory of market failure, information asymmetry, transaction cost as well as financial risk, in this project, we attempt to establish a systematic theoretical framework of credit risk of FCUR mortgage , format theoretical perspectives under the China's property right system using the field survey data from typical pilots in the middle and west parts of China. Method of monte carlo simulation and CreditRisk+ model are employed to assess the various credit risk of FCUR mortgage. Moreover,we also try to establish a sharing mechanism to release the credit risk of FCUR mortgage with inter-linkage of 'Bank, Guarantee, and Insurance'. And methods of evolution game, system simulation, experimental economics are applied to examine the effectiveness of the sharing mechanism. Eventually, accessory institution is also designed to protect and develop the sharing mechanism.

因农业的弱质性、土地产权制度差异性、农地抵押政策性与金融机构营利目标不一致性，加之风险管理配套制度建设滞后、农地交易市场机制和农户信用体系不健全，开展农地抵押贷款业务相较于其他贷款业务呈现更高信用风险，造成金融机构供给积极性低问题突出。然而，鲜有研究系统性探究农地抵押贷款风险，尤其是信用风险，并形成理论体系；立足中国产权制度情境从金融资源供给方视角研究农地抵押信用风险更是凤毛麟角。鉴于此，本项目拟依据市场失灵、信息不对称、交易成本、金融风险等理论，系统性架构农地抵押贷款信用风险研究的理论框架，形成解析中国土地制度情境中的不同农地抵押贷款信用风险生成的理论观点，采用中西部典型试点地区调研数据，运用蒙特卡洛模拟法、CreditRisk+模型等评估信用风险，构建“银担保”协同的复合型风险分担机制，引入演化博弈-系统仿真、实验经济学方法评价分担效果，提出配套制度设计，以化解农地抵押贷款信用风险。

因受限于土地产权交易市场发育滞后、农业经营主体信用体系不完善、抵押物价值不稳定以及风险管理体系不健全等约束，金融机构在开展农地经营权抵押贷款业务中普遍面临高风险与低收益不对等困境，致使多地贷款供给出现规模收缩或基本停滞现象。大量农户农地经营权抵押贷款需求难以得到有效满足，且面临更严格的信贷配给，并呈现更高的信用风险。农户也因此再度面临融资难题。.鉴于此，本课题依据四川省、宁夏自治区以及重庆直辖市三省份1156户入户调查数据和36家金融机构调研数据，总结和分析现阶段农地经营权抵押贷款发展现状与存在的主要问题基础上，创新性对农地经营权贷款模式进行了分类，并在其内涵与外延界定基础上，立足供给方，分别构建了风险评价指标体系，并评价了不同模式农地经营权抵押贷款风险水平和测算了其技术效率。立足需求方，本课题采用选择实验方法，分析了农户对不同农地经营权抵押贷款产品属性及其偏好，并拓展了该方法应用领域，以及探究了农地经营权抵押贷款可得性优化研究。进一步地，立足中国土地产权管制与农村金融生态不完备情境，本课题系统性构建农户农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险“生成机理→风险识别→损失度量”研究框架，运用演化博弈理论阐释了信用风险生成机理，实证识别与度量了信用风险。.本课题形成如下主要结论：（1）现阶段农地经营权抵押贷款业务推广仍然困难重重。（2）农地经营权抵押贷款风险具有结构多元、层次复杂的典型特征，且总体可控。不同贷款模式对整体风险分担、信用风险化解以及农业风险缓释作用各有差异。（3）选择实验方法可以有效的应用于农户对涉农贷款行为决策分析。（4）农户农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险违约率较高，且存在主动和被动差异，并以主动违约为主。农户农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险损失和单笔贷款风险敞口较高，且在极端事件冲击下损失增幅较快。（5）增加财富水平，优化社会资本可有效改善农地经营权抵押贷款可得性。