“杰文斯”悖论、能效政策改进与“双控目标”分解

To improve energy efficiency, implementation of energy saving policy and Determine energy-saving target has become an important strategic initiative to solve energy security and climate change strategy. However, many countries' development experience and literature studies show the energy rebound effect exists generally and Jevons paradox are widespread phenomenon. Alleviating the energy rebound effect and ensuring the "validity" of energy saving policy are important guarantee to make energy efficiency really become "the fourth power" of human economic and social development. This project intends to adopt linear programming; equilibrium theory and consumption theory research methods to analysis the mechanism of action of in-depth study and reveal the energy rebound effect. Building rebound effect analysis model includes Special energy demand that the rebound effects are regarded as a special energy demand module; the research carries on the numerical simulation and accurately measures the rebound effect to evaluate the policy of energy efficiency and explore the path of reducing rebound effect. On this basis, the study establishes and develops the China's energy consumption index system of target decomposition of "double control" and implementation tool , which based on energy-saving, emission-reduction and the "double control" goal of energy consumption. The study has important theory value for developing energy rebound effects theory , decision-making reference value to evaluate and improve the energy efficiency policies and achieving the goal of emission-reduction and the "double control" goal in our country. The objective of the study has important value for enriching energy rebound effects, evaluating and improving the energy efficiency policies in our country and implementing energy conservation and emissions reduction targets.

提高能源效率，实施节能政策，框定节能目标已成为当前世界各国解决能源安全，应对气候变化的战略举措。但各国发展实践与现有文献研究都表明：能源回弹效应普遍存在。缓解能源回弹效应，确保节能政策的"有效性"，才可使能源效率真正成为人类经济社会发展的"第四种"能源。本项目拟综合采用线性规划、均衡理论、消费经济等理论与方法深入研究和揭示能源回弹效应的作用机制；将回弹效应视为特殊能源需求模块，构建包括回弹效应在内的能源系统分析模型，进行数值模拟仿真，科学测算回弹效应；客观评估我国能效政策的有效性，探索我国缓解回弹效应的路径。在此基础上，基于能效改进和节能减排倒逼机制，建立和开发的我国能耗和电耗"双控"目标分解的指标体系与工具。本项目的研究对于丰富能源回弹效应有重要的理论价值，对评估和改进我国能效政策，实现节能减排目标具有重要的决策参考价值。

我国长期坚持提高能效、节约能源政策，甚至提出能源消费双控目标。但并没阻止能源消费持续攀升。这自然与国民经济快速增长有关，但也可能是存在能源回弹导致能效政策部分失效。基于此，本项目开展了如下重要研究：.1.基于生产者理论和消费者理论首先从理论层面对能源回弹效应的发生机制进行研究，并通过调查问卷分析，从能源微观消费主体——居民家庭个人能源消费角度，进一步深入揭示我国能源回弹效应发生的微观机制，从居民家庭能源消费行为层面刻画影响回弹效应发生因素以及回弹效应发生的内在机理。.2.构建能源回弹效应的投入产出测算模型，基于行业之间相互依赖关系，科学测算我国能源消费的回弹效应，包括直接回弹效应以及间接回弹效应，证明了我国的确存在“杰文斯悖论”，测算和分析不同行业的能源回弹效应情况。.3.进一步建立能源消费的灰度模型，预测未来在不同的经济增长情景下我国“双控目标”能否实现；并基于设定情景和我国现有的回弹效应水平，估算未来年度的能源回弹量，研究在实现“双控目标”的情形下，我国能源回弹量需要匹配和降低的程度，从而保障“双控目标”实现。.4.在上述基础上，对我国现有的能效政策进行梳理，并在总结政策评估方法的基础上，提出和构建我国能效政策的评估指标体系。并基于调查问卷分析，着重从能源回弹发生的微观机理角度，对我国能效政策的改进与完善提出政策建议。.5.最后，建立和开发了基于我国能源消费“双控”目标分解的区域分配和企业分配指标体系，并尝试探索构建基于各用能主体（区域和企业等）“用能配额”调剂与交易的市场交易和电子平台，为这一倒逼机制在我国实践层面的应用提供操作路径。.本项目的研究对于丰富能源回弹效应有重要的理论价值，评估和改进我国能效政策，实现“双控”等节能减排目标具有重要的决策参考价值。