基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价研究

This project proposal aims at achieving breakthrough from statically assessing crops growth suitability to dynamically evaluating it, and meanwhile identifying the mechanism of temporally and spatially precise assessment on potato growth suitability based on process-oriented methodology. The study region is the arable areas in parts of northeast China located within the "Sickle Shape Zone". The two typical potato varieties of early maturing and medium-late maturing were chosen for the study. Research pillars in this project include several parts. Firstly, field experiments will be conducted to acquire relevant biophysical and physiological parameters during the potato life cycle. Secondly, based on the convergent effective accumulated temperature in each basic spatial unit, potential potato phenology and its spatial heterogeneity will be analyzed. Thirdly, based on the above-mentioned, the mechanism of temporally and spatially precise assessment on potato cultivation suitability based on dynamic process-oriented mode including the mechanism of dynamically and precisely selecting assessment indicators, the mechanism of precisely valuing assessment indicators based on basic temporal unit (daily) and basic spatial unit, and the mechanism of precisely weighing assessment indicators based on horizontal and vertical spatial orientation will be accomplished. Moreover, dynamic assessment indicators selection in the different potato growth phases, the application of different functions to value assessment indicators, and the application of the first derivative of potato dry matter curve to vertically weigh assessment indicators were prioritized. Fourthly, the potato growth model for simulating potato yield will be used to validate evaluated potato growth suitability. And sensitivity analysis of assessment indicators for potato growth suitability will be also implemented. Finally, potato growth suitability for the two varieties is to be shown in map format. This study will push forward inter-disciplinary development between geography and agronomy, and promote to integrate macro and micro science.

项目旨在实现作物种植适宜性评价由静态到动态模式的突破，明确基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价机理。拟选择东北“镰刀弯”部分地区耕地区域为研究区，选择当地典型的马铃薯早、中晚熟品种为研究对象开展研究。通过田间试验获取马铃薯生长期相关生长生理参数，在空间基本单元内基于收敛式有效积温判定马铃薯潜在物候期，分析其空间差异性；以此为基础，研究基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性精细评价机理，包括评价指标体系动态精细化选取机理、以每日和空间基本单元为评价基础的指标精细化赋值机理及基于横纵二维空间导向的指标精细化加权机理，重点完成马铃薯不同生长阶段评价指标动态化选取、指标函数化赋值及应用马铃薯干重曲线一阶导数完成评价指标纵向加权等内容；应用马铃薯生长模型模拟单产验证适宜性评价结果，分析适宜性评价影响因子敏感性；将适宜性评价结果成图。研究将促进地学与农学交叉发展，宏观与微观学科融合。

为优化冷凉区作物种植结构布局，研究团队选择我国东北黑龙江和内蒙古“镰刀弯”部分地区耕地为研究区，选择田间试验点马铃薯典型早熟、中晚熟品种为研究对象，开展基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价机理研究。本项目研究第一部分是通过田间试验获取马铃薯生长期日均温和采样期各器官干重，建立了项目数据库，确定1千米×1千米为研究空间基础单元。研究第二部分是在田间试验基础上，通过对比不同光温模型（基于生理发育时间）对不同马铃薯品种生育期模拟的效果，寻找适于不同马铃薯品种生育期最优模型，计算机基于最优模型自动判定空间基本单元内马铃薯物候期，分析马铃薯物候期空间差异性。第三部分是研究马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价指标、赋值及加权机理，以每日和空间基本单元为评价基础的指标精细化赋值，基于横纵二维空间导向的指标精细化加权机理，即应用马铃薯干重曲线一阶导数完成评价指标纵向加权，在每个空间基本单元内，结合随机森林算法为各生长阶段指标横向加权，实现马铃薯评价指标二维加权，生成马铃薯种植适宜性评价结果图。第四部分研究是适宜性评价方法的检验，是应用DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato模型模拟马铃薯单产，进行适宜性评价结果的交叉验证。研究将促进地学与农学交叉发展，宏观与微观学科融合。