城乡居民家庭碳排放的演进趋势与调控方法研究

Household carbon emissions are an important source of carbon emissions. The current carbon emission reduction policies mainly aim at production areas, lack of effective measures to reduce emissions from resident consumption behaviors. As the main consumers of goods and services, household energy consumption and related carbon emissions have received extensive concerns from the international community and scientific community increasingly. China is at a critical stage of rapid urbanization, urban and rural household carbon emissions will become an important source of China’s carbon emission increase in the future. Based on the different perspectives of urban and rural households, the project will assess the status and drivers of urban and rural household carbon emissions, and investigate the effects of external factors such as urbanization and urban-rural integration on the needs of urban and rural household carbon emissions. Combining with social, economic, technological, and cultural development scenario analysis, the evolution trends of urban and rural household carbon emissions will be carried out to determine the reasonable level and space of urban and rural household carbon emission growth, proposing the control means and schemes of building scientific and rational household consumption patterns and carbon emissions behaviors. Research on the evolution trends of urban and rural household carbon emissions will help to reveal the carbon emission differences between urban households and rural households and their drivers, to provide scientific supports for related studies and regulation programs designs, promoting the establishment of the dominant position of low carbon consumption patterns, avoiding a series of resource and environment risks owing to the disorderly growth of household carbon emissions.

家庭碳排放是重要的碳排放源。当前的减排政策主要针对生产领域，缺乏针对居民消费行为的有效减排措施。作为产品和服务消费的主体，家庭能耗及碳排放问题正日益引起科学界的广泛关注。我国正处于城镇化快速推进的关键阶段，城乡居民家庭碳排放将成为我国未来碳排放增长的重要来源。基于城乡居民家庭的不同视角，本研究评估我国城乡居民家庭碳排放现状及其驱动因素，探讨我国城镇化、城乡一体化等外部因素对城乡居民家庭碳排放需求的影响，结合社会、经济、技术、文化发展情景分析，开展2030年城乡居民家庭碳排放的演进趋势研究，确定城乡居民家庭碳排放增长的合理水平与空间，提出构建科学合理的居民家庭消费模式和碳排放行为的调控手段与方案。城乡居民家庭碳排放演进趋势研究有助于揭示城乡居民家庭碳排放差异及其驱动因素，为相关研究与调控方案设计提供科学支持，推动低碳消费模式主导地位的建立，避免家庭碳排放无序增长所带来的系列资源与环境风险。

全球变暖已经成为当前国际社会面临的重要环境发展问题之一。本项目以城乡居民家庭消费行为的视角出发，基于碳排放系数法和投入产出分析法，比较评估了2005—2012年我国北方地区和南方地区城乡居民家庭碳排放，结果表明：城镇居民家庭碳排放始终高于农村居民家庭碳排放；北方地区和南方地区城镇居民家庭碳排放较为接近，而北方地区农村居民家庭碳排放明显高于南方地区农村居民家庭碳排放。利用相关分析和灰色关联分析量化分析了2000—2012年我国城乡居民家庭生活直接人均碳排放和间接人均碳排放的驱动因素。研究结果表明，人均收入/可支配收入、人均国内生产总值、城市化率、家庭规模与农村居民家庭生活人均排放显著相关。以2012年作为基准年，设定基准、节能、低碳三种发展情景，从整体、城镇、农村三个层面预测2012-2030年我国城乡居民家庭碳排放需求。研究结果表明：在基准情景下，我国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量在2030年将分别达到70 亿t、50 亿t 和20 亿t；在节能情景下，我国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量在2030 年将分别为60 亿t、43 亿t 和17 亿t；在低碳情景下，我国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量在2030 年将分别为55 亿t、40 亿t 和15 亿t。