区域可持续发展多维临界调控研究

The evolution of sustainable development is interwoven in essence with the concept of thresholds (criticality or limits). Since the book, the limits to growth, was published by Meadows et al in 1970s, the limits to development have been.increasingly recognized. At the same time, the concept of carrying capacity was introduced into environmental impacts of human activity to discuss and illustrate the ecological impacts and limits of the growing human and rising consumption, which has become the central principle in ecological economics. From the perspective of the.current academic bibliographies, the study on threshold is relatively scattered and also not combined closely with sustainable development, which puts emphasis on single threshold. Some misunderstandings on the nature of thresholds such as carrying.capacity existed. In view of above-mentioned, we discuss such thresholds of development especially ecological thresholds as entropy which determines the boundary of natural criticality, index of critical environment, the thresholds of ecological sustainability and its regulation principle, the measurement of ecological thresholds. We not only fundamentally establish a systematic framework for ecological thresholds of sustainable development, which discloses the internal relationships between the single threshold, and achieve some advances on the basis of.work done by Paul Ekins, Macdonald D.et al, but also make a comprehensive.summary and depiction of carrying capacity,one of the cores in sustainable development, about its connotation, evolution, measurement, their flaws and somerelates advances. It is helpful for our work to not only make some vague recognitions on the essence of thresholds,especially carrying capacity clear and the study on sustainable development deepen in theory, but also construct a set of dynamicmonitoring indicators which could reflect sensitively the variation of sustainable development states and improve the monitoring and regulating methods.

以自然社会经济复合系统的演化分析为基础，从系统整体运行、资源利用、可持续性维护角度比较系统地刻划区域可持续发展中的多维临界，建立起环境与发展临界控制模型，并且初步形成临界思想与调控手段相结合的制度和技术基本构架，以便在理论层面上拓展和深化可持续发展研究，在可操作层面上有利于对区域可持续发展进行调控。...........