变化环境下农业气象灾变综合风险评估及优化调控

Based on the comprehensive deployment of the national comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation plan (2016-2020), the significant requirements of national grain security, and projects shifted from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention and from disaster losses reduction to disaster mitigation, to solve the grain yield reduction, crop area reduction, and a series of problems caused by meteorological disasters. Taking maize, the main grain crop in the northwest of Liaoning province, as the study object. First, multidimensional analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural meteorological disaster, to explore the breed mechanism and reveal the coupling relationship between the hazard-affected body and disaster, which are both dominated by meteorological disasters. Second, based on the comprehensive disaster risk management, combined with field experiment, remote sensing inversion technology, and crop growth simulation model to establish agro-meteorological disaster risk assessment system and agro-meteorological disasters comprehensive risk assessment model of the whole process of crop growth, and then to achieve the agro-meteorological disaster risk comprehensive assessment under the multi-hazard concurrent and the mixed effect. On this basis, the risk regionalization and the reliability of the results will be verified. Finally, according to the results of risk assessment, regionalization, and the regional planning, the scheme of the agro-meteorological disaster reduction and yield protection and the optimal control can be put forward. These schemes will be demonstrated and applied in the northwest region of the Liaoning province. Improving the agro-meteorological disaster risk comprehensive assessment theory, to achieve the integrated management of risk assessment, risk regionalization, and optimal control.

本项目基于国家综合防灾减灾规划（2016-2020）重大部署及我国粮食安全保障的重大需求，从灾后救援转向灾前预防，从减少灾害损失转向减轻灾害风险，以缓解因气象灾变造成的粮食减产、作物适耕面积减少等问题。以辽西北粮食作物玉米为研究对象，首先，多维度解析农业气象多灾种演变特征，探究其孕灾机理并揭示以气象灾害为主导的承灾体与灾损间的耦合关系。其次，以综合灾害风险管理理论为依据，综合田间试验、遥感反演和作物生长模拟模型，建立农业气象多灾种综合风险评价体系，构建作物生育全过程的农业气象灾害综合风险评估模型，实现多灾种群发与混发效应下的农业气象灾害风险综合评估，在此基础上，进行风险区划和结果可靠性的验证。最后，根据风险评估与区划结果以及地区规划提出农业气象灾害减灾保产与优化调控方案，并在辽西北地区进行示范应用。完善现有农业气象灾变风险综合评估理论，实现风险评估、风险区划、优化调控的一体化管理。

本项目基于国家综合防灾减灾规划（2016-2020）重大部署及我国粮食安全保障的重大需求，从灾后救援转向灾前预防，从减少灾害损失转向减轻灾害风险，以缓解因气象灾变造成的粮食减产、作物适耕面积减少等问题。选取易受灾害影响的东北三省地区为研究对象，首先，结合近50年的气象数据和主要粮食作物生长条件，采用统计分析与现场调研相结合的研究方法，分析研究区农业气象灾害对主要粮食作物的影响，多维度解析农业气象多灾种演变特征，揭示以气象灾害为主导的承灾体与灾损间的耦合关系。其次，利用气象数据、遥感数据、再分析数据、基础地理数据、作物生长发育及产量数据、历史灾害统计数据等多源数据，建立气象灾害综合风险评估技术，在此基础上，进行风险区划和结果可靠性的验证。最后，根据风险评估与区划结果以及地区规划提出农业气象灾害减灾保产与优化调控方案，最大限度地降低农业气象灾害给粮食增产带来的压力。研究成果完善了现有农业气象灾变风险综合评估理论，实现了辽宁省气象灾害风险评估、风险区划、优化调控的一体化管理。