基于空间分异的长江经济带低碳发展演化博弈与减排模式研究

In the context of global reductions in carbon emissions and climate changing, the carbon emissions of Yangtze River economic belt, which has risen to national strategy, are directly related to the realization of China's carbon emission reduction and low-carbon transition goals. his subject to the cities along the Yangtze River economic belt for research object, based on the development economics, regional economics, and game theory, using mathematical economic analysis, and measurement analysis, method, via building space measurement model,with core index from carbon emissions total, and per capita carbon emissions volume, and carbon emissions strength, and carbon emissions performance, makes empirical research on Yangtze River economic belt with carbon emissions of space points specific features and the effect factors. On the basis of the data of macroscopic carbon emissions, we intend to evolutionary game theory, from the perspective of micro-cities of Yangtze River economic belt exclusive symbiosis of low carbon development issues, analysis of government, enterprises, residents in long-term carbon dynamics in the course of the game how to choose an action. Based on the analytic hierarchy process to construct the corresponding indicator system of the Yangtze River economic belt along the gradient evaluate collaborative.development of low carbon, based on gradient of cooperative development of low carbon carbon-reduction mode, suggest the policy design of reducing carbon emissions and low carbon development. Finally, we simulate to analyze policy effects of the Yangtze River economic belt of low carbon emissions in different modes and policies design. This project, building in the Yangtze River economic.belt of low carbon and environmental protection demonstration areas strategic objectives, guides the direction for the regional low carbon development in China,and provides reference for decision-making of China's governments according to local conditions to develop carbon-reduction policies.

在全球减少碳排放、应对气候变化的背景下，为实现我国碳减排计划及低碳转型目标，本课题以长江经济带为研究对象，基于发展经济学、区域经济学、博弈论等理论，首先，从宏观角度拟运用数理经济分析、计量分析等方法，通过构建空间计量模型，从碳排放总量、人均碳排放量等核心指标实证研究长江经济带碳排放的空间分异性特征及影响因素。其次，拟运用演化博弈的方法从微观角度分析长江经济带城市间低碳发展的互斥共生问题，分析政府、企业、居民在长期碳排放动态的博弈过程中如何优化决策，在此基础上提出基于低碳协同发展基础上的梯度碳减排模式及相应的低碳发展差异化的政策设计方案。最后，运用数值仿真模拟与理论分析相结合，验证所提出的新型减排模式的效果及政策的可行性。本课题在促进长江经济带建成低碳环保示范区战略目标的同时，将为我国区域低碳发展指引方向，并能为我国政府因地制宜制定减排政策提供决策参考。

碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下，长江经济带作为我国重要的经济带，能否实现低碳转型并实现碳达峰是我国能否实现双碳目标的关键环节。本项目以长江经济带各地级城市为研究对象，基于发展经济学、区域经济学、博弈论等理论，研究了长江经济带碳排放的空间分异、低碳博弈与减排模式。首先，通过构建空间计量模型，从碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、碳排放生产率等核心指标分析了长江经济带碳排放的时空演变特征；其次，基于脱钩弹性和碳排放生产率的泰尔指数论证分析长江经济带碳排放的异质性特征；建立空间面板数据模型，实证分析长江经济带碳排放的空间效应及影响因素；从静态博弈和演化博弈的微观视角分析了低碳发展中政府-企业-居民三个行为主体的低碳博弈策略；最后，提出长江经济带低碳发展的差异化碳减排模式和激励机制。.