西北典型旱作农业区农户对干旱灾害风险的响应研究

Global warming have caused frequent regional drought disaster, but dynamic and comprehensive drought risk of Dry-farming agriculture (DFA) is understood less, especially for local farmland households' apperceive and response to drought risk, as hardly can sustain scientific decision-making and building of regional disaster prevention and mitigation system. The DFA area in the northwest China is one of the easiest areas prone to drought. Taking the DFA area of the Gansu Province in the northwest China as the typical study area of this project, and based on statistical analysis of climate data and historical disaster records, interpretation of multi-temporal remotely sensed images, spatial analysis of GIS software, in-door inquiry method of Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), etc., through integrating these methods of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), fuzzy mathematics, information diffusion theory, and calculation of time ordered weighted vector, the regional drought disaster and its disaster-chain properties and the assessment indicator systems and the assessment model of dynamic and comprehensive drought risk of DFA will be built, and local farmland households' apperceive and response mechanism to drought risk will be further explored. This research not only will be helpful for improving the assessment method of regional disaster risk, revealing the vulnerabilities of the study area and dynamic features of drought risk, but also will be very significant for revealing the forming mechanism of local farmland households' apperceive about drought disaster risk and the decision-making mechanism of their response to drought risk. Moreover, this research can provide important practice guide and reference for decision-making of agriculture development, and building of comprehensive regional disaster prevention and mitigation system in the DFA area of northwest China.

全球气候变暖导致区域性干旱灾害频发，而目前对旱作农业干旱灾害风险动态综合评估研究不足，关于当地农户对干旱灾害风险感知和响应机制的研究薄弱，难以支撑区域灾害风险管理科学决策和减灾体系建设。我国西北旱作农业区是最易受干旱灾害威胁的地区，因此选取甘肃省旱作农业区作为本项目典型研究区，通过区域气象气候资料、历史灾情数据统计分析、多时相遥感数据解译与GIS空间分析、实地调研与连续多期参与式农户调查，集成AHP方法、模糊数学、信息扩散理论和时间权确定方法等，探讨区域干旱灾害与灾害链特征，建立区域风险评估指标体系和综合动态评估模型，研究农户对干旱灾害风险的感知与响应。本研究不仅对完善我国区域灾害风险评估方法、揭示研究区灾害脆弱性现状以及干旱灾害风险动态特征、揭示农户对干旱灾害感知的形成机制与响应行为的决策机制等具有重要理论意义，而且可为我国西北旱作农业区农业发展、综合减灾体系建设提供重要实践指导与决策参考。

全球气候变暖导致区域性干旱灾害频发，而目前对旱作农业干旱灾害风险动态综合评估研究不足，关于当地农户对干旱灾害风险感知和响应机制的研究薄弱，难以支撑区域灾害风险管理科学决策和减灾体系建设。本项目选取最易受干旱灾害威胁的甘肃省旱作农业区作为本项目典型研究区，通过区域气象气候资料、历史灾情数据统计分析、多时相遥感数据解译与GIS空间分析、实地调研与农户调查，集成AHP方法、模糊数学、信息扩散理论等，探讨了区域干旱灾害与灾害链特征，建立了区域风险评估指标体系和综合评估模型，揭示了研究区农户对干旱灾害风险的感知与响应。调研分析了国际上应对干旱的主要对策与经验，为我国西北旱作农业区干旱灾害风险缓减提供决策参考。.本项目取得的主要研究结果：①揭示了研究区1960—2016年气温明显上升，大部分地区降水日数在减少，且各典型站点降水变率大、降水显著偏少的时段持续时间长，研究区干旱灾害发生风险大。②分析获得了甘肃省干旱风险最高的地区是定西、天水、庆阳、平凉、临夏、甘南和陇南。③揭示了研究区典型旱作农业分布区农作物生长态势变异大，春季更易受干旱影响，1991—2013年典型县环县和定西市易受干旱灾害影响面积大、影响时间长，冬小麦和春小麦等亩产波动剧烈。④初步查明了研究区干旱灾害成灾机制、国家和各级政府以及农户自身在应对区域性严重干旱灾害中的角色与积极作用。⑤揭示了研究区绝大部分农户家庭年总经济收入低，收入来源单一，极易受到干旱灾害等的影响。⑥查明了农户对于当地干旱灾害本身的认知与研究区实际干旱情况总体相符，揭示了研究区农户对干旱的主要响应行为。⑦揭示了研究区农户对干旱灾害有较好的心理准备，对科技成果与农情、灾情信息需求高，对政府和科研机构信任度高。⑧获得了甘肃省干旱灾害减轻研究前沿热点与关键技术，以及未来技术突破的时间路线图，建议政府加大相关领域的研究与投入。本项结果对于提高区域应对干旱灾害风险的能力具有重要的决策参考意义。