中国区域间市场整合研究：微观机制与外部效应

Although China has been participated the international industrial specialization for several decades, she still has some serious problems of interregional local protectionism, regional development disparity, and interregional market segmentation. How to strengthen the interregional market integration and promote openness to internal market has been a challenge foe China in the long term. This study tries to answer the following questions: (1) what's the extent of China's domestic market integration and its evolution trend; (2) what's the micro- mechanism that induces interregional market integration; what are the economic impacts of interregional market integration; (4) what are the policies that promote market integration. This study first evaluates the interregional market integration through describing the spatial distribution and agglomeration of interregional trade, assessing the convergence trend of industrial and consumer goods among regions, and evaluating the extent of market integration by industry. Then, this study identifies the micro-mechanism of the internal market integration, including the geographical factors, fiscal decentralization, political factors, social capital factors, and international trade. Furthermore, this study analyzes the impacts of interregional market integration on regional economic performance, such as regional economic growth, fiscal equalization, income inequality and social welfare. Finally, this study tries to construct a national multi-region computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effect of the regional coordination policies issued by the central government, and provide policy recommendations to establish a unified national market.

伴随着参与国际贸易和国际产业分工的日益加深，中国仍然面临着国内地方保护主义强大、区域间发展差异明显、区域间市场严重分割的问题。如何促进区域间市场一体化和加强对内开放成为我国中长期发展的重要挑战之一。本研究将回答四个问题：（1）在中长期，中国区域间市场一体化的发展程度和趋势如何；（2）决定区域间市场一体化的内在微观机制有哪些；（3）区域间市场一体化有哪些外在的经济影响；（4）哪些政策有利于促进中国区域间市场一体化。本课题将从多角度评估区域间市场一体化的程度和趋势，包括采用空间计量方法分析区域贸易集聚、区域间产品价格差异、企业跨区经营的地方壁垒等；在此基础上，识别影响区域间市场一体化的各种微观机制，如地理因素、财政分权、社会资本和对外贸易等；然后，分析市场一体化对经济增长、财政均衡、收入平等的影响；最后，建立多区域可计算一般均衡模型，模拟区域协调政策效果，提出建立全国统一市场的政策建议。

中国作为一个发展中大国，国内市场整合的建设关系到产业发展、消费驱动和未来长期的经济增长。特别是在当前新冠疫情的国际背景下，促进国内循环更有重大的学术和实践意义。本课题从多个角度探讨了我国国内市场整合的当前趋势、决定因素以及预测未来的发展走向。本课题的主要研究内容、关键数据和重要结果如下：（1）以定量模型研究方法和省际贸易及省际信任数据为基础，发现推动国内贸易的关键因素之一是经济代理人之间的双边信任水平，指出增强社会信任可以促进国内市场整合的发展；（2）从财政政策入手，以县区财政数据为基础，分析地方政府的税收努力等行为如何抑制地区间货物和人才的流通，指出需要协调地区间发展；（3）发现历届党的代表大会、政府的五年规划以及工作报告虽然对遏制地方保护和市场分割起到了一定作用，但是地区间的市场鸿沟依然明显，因而提出未来促进我国内部市场一体化的各类政策方案和制度改革；（4）从汽车市场的角度来看，使用我国乘用车销售大数据分析影响乘用车市场分割的各类因素，并估计省际贸易壁垒的大小；（5）对新冠肺炎疫情下我国市场整合与流行病之间关系进行探讨，以及分析如何实施集中收治、切断传播途径及信息公开等流行病公共干预政策。