订单农业供应链中农户供应失效风险应对策略及应用——以云南普洱茶和蔬菜订单农业供应链为例

The supply disruption of farmers occurs frequently in contract-farming supply chains.This dose not only increases the supply chain operating costs, but also reduces the stability and reliability of the supply chain.So, it is also bad to the realization of China's agricultural industrialization. However, the researches on supply disruption management mostly take industrial supply chain for the objects and lack effective response strategies to the supply disruption of farmers in contract-farming supply chains. The agro-meteorological disasters and intentional breach of contract farmers both can result to the supply disruption of farmers. The multi-source supply strategies based on agricultural supply bases and multi-source supply + inventory portfolio strategies for agricultural products which can easily store for long time was designed in this project. How to decide the locations, numbers, sizes, the relationship with agricultural processing point of agricultural supply bases,the locations and quantity of inventory for agricultural products was researched. The impact on the two strategies of the fluctuations in agricultural products prices, the risk appetite of the leading enterprises and the change of value of agricultural products after storing was also analyzed quantitatively. The effectiveness and feasibility of two strategies were demonstrated by using Pu'er Tea and vegetables contract-farming supply chain in Yunnan. This project aimed at improving the capacity for dealing with the risk of supply disruption of farmers of contract-farming supply chains without sacrificing too much of the daily operating costs of the supply chain.This research is important to improve contract-farming supply chains management theory and promote sustainable development of contract-farming supply chains.

订单农业供应链中频繁发生的农户供应失效，不仅增加供应链运营成本，而且降低供应链的稳定性和可靠性，不利于我国农业产业化的实现。然而，现有的供应失效管理研究，大多以工业领域的供应链为对象，缺乏有效应对订单农业供应链中农户供应失效的策略。项目将农户供应失效分为农业气象灾害和农户故意违约两种情况，提出基于农产品供应基地的多源供应策略和针对易长时间存储农产品的多源供应+库存组合策略，研究两种策略下农产品供应基地的位置、数量、规模、与农产品加工点的关系、农产品库存位置和库存量的决策方法，定量分析农产品价格波动、龙头企业风险偏好以及农产品存储后价值变化对两种策略的影响，并以云南普洱茶和蔬菜订单农业供应链为例论证两种策略的有效性和可行性。项目的研究旨在提高订单农业供应链应对农户供应失效风险能力的同时，又不过多地牺牲供应链的日常运营成本，对完善订单农业供应链管理理论，促进订单农业的可持续发展具有重要意义。

随着我国农业产业化的快速发展，订单农业已成为公司与农户合作的主要形式。然而，订单农业在实际运营中，农户违约和自然气候条件变化导致的农产品供应不确定普遍存在，而且这种供应的不确定对农业企业的经营效益产生重要的负面影响。本课题从农业企业的角度研究应对订单农业中农产品供应不确定的策略，具体包括：订单农业供应链运营模式及农产品供应统计规律；供应数量和质量不确定下的多源供应策略；基于土地租赁的农产品供应不确定应对策略；易长时间存储农产品供应不确定下的库存策略。通过项目研究，明确了订单农业供应链主要成本构成和农产品供应统计规律，发现农户实际供应量与签约量之间普遍存在差异，而且实际供应量都小于签约量，农户的实际供应量比例服从正态分布总体；建立了农产品供应不确定、供应和需求均不确定以及决策者风险偏好下的农户选择及订单分配模型，揭示了供应比例的均值和方差、供应成本、供应率、供应能力、决策者风险偏好、农户违约概率、农户违约强度、气象灾害发生概率和气象灾害强度等因素对农户选择和签约量的影响机理；建立了农产品供应数量和质量不确定下的签约量决策模型，揭示了不同质量等级的农产品供应率对签约量的影响；建立了农产品供应不确定下农业企业土地租赁和种植规模决策模型，揭示了产出率和需求的分布、销售价格、租赁成本、缺货成本、库存持有成本、土地闲置成本、种植成本、劳动力成本、可用的资金规模等对土地租赁和种植规模的影响；建立了农产品供应不确定下库存销售一体化决策模型，揭示了价格波动、供应能力、缺货成本、库存持有成本等对农产品采购和销售的影响规律。项目的研究弥补了现有订单农业企业经营管理理论的不足，为农业企业有效应对农户违约和自然气候条件变化导致农产品供应风险提供了方法和理论依据，对于促进订单农业供应链更好的发展有重要的理论和实际意义。