过饱和旅游流与区域交通网络的时空分异及耦合特征研究

Due to the multiple effects from the time budget of tourist, the fluctuation of travel cost and the spatial structure of transportation network, the hype-congestion tourist flow would be emerged in regional transportation network at specific point in time, which its rapidly concentration could significantly affect the transportation services level, and also could induce traffic congestion and potential safety hazard. Tourist transportation has become an important factor of regional tourist development, however, the spatial and temporal variation and coupled features between hype-congestion tourist flow and regional transportation network were paid less attention by existing studies. Firstly, the decision-making traffic behavior model and spatial behavior mode of tourist are proposed based on prospect theory and social network analysis in this program, and then the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of hype-congestion tourist flow are obtained. At the same time, the evaluation methods of tourist transportation accessibility are proposed based on GIS and space syntax, and the influence mechanism of traffic cost and services level on tourist traffic behavior would be analyzed based on tourist transportation impedance model. Secondly, the regional transportation network would be attacked by hype-congestion tourist flow based on complex network theory, which tested the robustness and survivability of the network and identified network bottleneck and its evolutionary character, and the coupled features between hype-congestion tourist flow and regional transportation network could be obtained. Finally, the traffic evacuation simulation of hype-congestion rourist flow is established based on the multi-agent thory, and the collaborative optimization methods of regional transportation network are proposed under the impact of hype-congestion tourist flow, then the tourist transportation network in Yunnan province would be taken as an example. The research results could provide theoretical guidance for regional tourism planning and practical basis for tourism emergency management.

由于受到旅游时间预算、交通成本与交通网络结构的影响，区域交通网络在特定时段会产生过饱和旅游流，其快速集聚将诱发交通拥堵与安全隐患。旅游交通已经成为区域旅游发展的重要影响因素，而现有研究较少关注过饱和旅游流与区域交通网络的时空分异及耦合特征。本项目基于前景理论与社会网络分析方法，构建旅游交通决策行为模型与空间行为模式，获取区域过饱和旅游流的时空分异特征。同时，集成GIS与空间句法建立旅游交通可达性评估方法，构造旅游交通阻抗模型，分析交通成本与服务水平变动对旅游交通行为的影响。然后，基于复杂网络理论利用过饱和旅游流攻击区域交通网络，测试网络鲁棒性与抗毁性确定路网瓶颈，获取过饱和旅游流与区域交通网络的耦合特征。最后，基于多智能体理论进行过饱和旅游流的疏散仿真，提出过饱和旅游流影响下的区域交通网络协同优化方法，以云南为例进行验证。研究结果可为区域旅游规划提供理论依据，并为旅游应急管理提供实践基础。

节假日过饱和旅游流与区域旅游交通网络发展差异所造成的交通拥堵与安全问题，已经成为交通应急管理和区域旅游发展过程中凸显的关键科学问题。本项目基于“旅游行为决策-旅游流特征挖掘-旅游交通网络建模-过饱和旅游流疏解”的研究思路，系统研究了旅游交通决策行为及其影响机理，提取了区域旅游的空间行为模式，解析了过饱和旅游流的形成机理，评估了区域旅游交通网络整体可达性及时空演化特征，探讨了过饱和旅游流与区域旅游交通网络的交互影响机理，提出了过饱和旅游流的运输组织疏散策略和交通网络协同优化策略。.首先，基于云南省自驾车旅游出行基本特征，构建了涵盖旅游者基本属性、出行目的、信息搜寻与偏好选择影响因素的旅游交通行为决策模型，获取了自驾车旅游出行决策的基本特征，辨识了不同因素对旅游交通出行决策的作用路径。.其次，解析了自驾游和跟团游的空间模式，并在此基础上从旅游交通线网容量和旅游目的地容量两个维度辨识了过饱和旅游流的形成机理，通过分析七个法定节假日过饱和旅游流的时空分异特征，从动态视角获取了过饱和旅游流的空间流动特征和网络结构特征。.然后，基于拓扑理论构建了区域旅游交通网络，利用网络时空可达性评估模型对云南省区域旅游交通网络可达性进行了测算，并聚焦游客出行全过程，在测度景区外部交通通达性和市内换乘便捷性的基础上，综合评价了云南省A级及以上景区的可达性水平。此外，基于快速交通方式对区域综合交通网络发展的重要影响，分析了高铁对区域旅游交通可达性的影响，并重点立足可达性演变视角，获取了区域航空网络的时空演化特征。.最后，利用拥堵指数测算和交通拥堵分级方法，识别了云南省区域旅游交通瓶颈，解析了过饱和旅游流与区域交通网络的交互影响机理。同时，构建了区域旅游交通网络运营服务组织效率评估和运营组织协调能力评估的方法体系，提出了云南省运营组织优化对策与措施。基于过饱和旅游流的时空间集聚变化特征，采用突变理论对旅游交通应急疏散效率进行评价，提出了过饱和旅游流疏散策略，并通过构建过饱和旅游流交通网络双层优化模型，获取了过饱和旅游流影响下的区域旅游交通网络布局优化方法。