新型城镇化、农民工市民化与农村土地政策差别化设计：一个异质性假设和社会安全支持视角

Rural to Urban Migration of the Migrant Workers has become one of the most striking huge economic and social change in China for more than 30 years . This project proposal takes the Migrant Workers as study objects, and studies heterogeneity of the Migrant Workers groups as the cut-in point. The heterogeneity hypothesis and perspective of social security together provide theoretical tools to understand the interactive relationship among the Migrant Workers, the Market and the Government. The proposal constructs an analytical framework for the interactive relationship to study the interactive features among new-style urbanization, migrant workers' citizenization and land institutions(or policies). On the basis of Capability theory of Amartya Sen and the LC Cluster model, the proposal takes citizenization will and capability of migrant workers as mainline to research the relationship between the heterogenicity and the citizenization will or capability of migrant workers. With the Logit model, the proposal tries to explain the impact of different generations, the change of career and places and the different ways to live on the demands of land policies, which would provide foundation about differential design of rural land policy.Rural land policy and urban housing security have impact on social security demand support of migrant workers' citizenization under constraints of their facing the inequality of the basic public services between urban and rural. The above implication is important for us to provide a differential design of rural land policy. So the proposal will provide a path of police reform design, whose flexible space is dependent on heterogeneity hypothesis, and the baseline security is dependent on social security support. Meanwhile, path of police reform design should keep a balance between efficiency and fairness, and a equilibrium of supply and demand. In final the proposal will be helpful to lay the foundation for further study on policy evaluation system of heterogeneity-flexible space and security-baseline security.

三十多年的农民工城乡迁移成为中国最引人注目的巨大经济社会变迁之一。本项目以农民工为研究对象、以农民工群体的异质性为切入点、以社会安全为视角，分析建构农民工、市场和政府的关系框架，研究新型城镇化、农民工市民化与土地制度（或政策）的互动特征。以农民工市民化意愿与可行能力为主线，基于森的可行能力理论、应用The LC Cluster模型研究农民工异质性与市民化意愿、可行能力的关系，应用Logit 模型研究不同性别的代际、职业流动性、地域流动性、居住方式等差异对土地政策需求的影响，为土地政策差别化设计提供基础。研究现行城乡基本公共服务非均等化的约束下农村土地政策、城镇住房保障对农民工市民化社会安全需求的政策意义。从而形成以异质性假设为弹性空间、社会安全支持为底线保障，兼顾效率与公平、均衡供给与需求的政策改革路径设计，为进一步探索异质性-弹性空间与安全性-底线保障结合的政策评估体系奠定基础。

本项目以农民工为研究对象、以农民工群体的异质性为考察的切入点，研究新型城镇化、农民工市民化与土地制度（或政策）的互动特征。首先，自立项以来积累了大量的调研数据成果。调研区域由点到线到面铺开，由南京市据点扩展到沪宁线沿线、宁杭沿线火车站点，然后面向长三角地区、全国东中西三大区域推开。共积累5667份农民工问卷。其次，借鉴阿玛蒂亚•森的自由与可行能力理论，研究农民工市民化的能力与意愿，丰富有关农民工的异质性假设的实证知识。第三，从农民工群体的异质性出发，根据农民工区分为新生代农民工与老一代农民工这一已有的政策与研究传统，研究农民工群体分化与市民化路径研究。聚焦农村土地资源禀赋所蕴含的农民身份是否会对新生代农民工的身份转换的认知形成一定的干扰，并运用Heckman Probit模型检验作了排除；应用LC Cluster model对农民工与土地的关系进行算法处理并将异质性分为产权安全与不安全两类。第四，将农民工的在农村的土地权益拓展到在城镇的居住权益和劳动权益，探讨农民工市民化的影响因素与障碍。享受到住房保障的农民工市民化意愿，较未享受住房保障的农民工群体高；劳动政策与社会保障的协同治理不到位，离劳动关系与社会保障对其市民化的托底还有很大距离。这种依靠非均等化基本公共服务压低成本推动城镇化快速发展的模式注定不可持续。第五，在农民工、市场和政府的关系框架中，研究农业补贴政策、土地流转市场对农民工市民化的影响机理。最后，研究了土地的功能变迁及其流转退出与农民工市民化，经PSM匹配发现有市民化意愿的接受宅基地有偿退出的比例，较之没有市民化意愿的高。总之，本项目从不同代际、不同意愿与可行能力的农民工异质性出发，在调查研究的基础上以新型城镇化健康发展为导向，探索了与满足农民工市民化需要的土地政策差别化设计有关的基本事实，从而为构建以新型城镇化为导向、面向农民工市民化的社会安全支持体系提供了理论与实证支撑，为政策改革的底线思维提供了有关证据。