基于隐患识别与响应建模的供水系统预警技术研究

In the past few years, various types of water supply accidents have seriously endangered residents' health and sustainable development of cities, therefore, it is high time that a water supply safety warning system should be etablished to guarantee safety of urban water supply system. The conventional early warning system can raise the alarm only for the gradient accidents and sudden accidents with the appearance of deterioration, but for sudden accidents with no apparent sign, it is powerless. This kind of accidents are usually caused by slight changes of multiple factors and erupt through time and space accumulation and their joint function. In this research, the advantages of analyzing mechanism of multiple factors and their joint function of comprehensive evaluation model are taken to analyze factors of water safety in a full range. A safety evaluation model based on hazard identification and response is established. A warning system combined with evaluation model, online monitoring system and improved prediction model are built to identify and track the response of risk factors and raise the alarm before the outbreak of the accident ultimately. Considering the defect of the traditional comprehensive evaluation model that it is unable to respond to changes in the factors layer, some structural adjustments are made for the evaluation index system of traditional model based on the fundamental theory of Petri’s net, adding emergency response mechanism to improve the sensitivity and reliability of the model.

近年来各种类型供水安全事故频发，严重危害城镇居民健康和城市的可持续发展，因此，建立供水安全预警体系保障城市供水安全就成为当今社会最迫切的需求。现有的供水安全预警体系只能对渐变式供水安全事故或已经发生并有恶化表象显现出来的突发式供水安全事故进行报警，对没有明显征兆的突发式供水安全事故则无能为力，而这类事故通常由多因素的细微变化经过时空积累和联合作用后突然爆发。本研究拟发挥综合评价模型在对多因素及其联合作用机理分析方面的特长，对供水安全的影响因素进行全方位分析，并以此为基础建立基于隐患识别与响应的安全评价模型，结合在线监测系统和改进型预测模型构建预警体系，对隐患因素进行识别和跟踪响应，最终在事故爆发前提出报警。针对传统综合评价模型无法及时响应因素层变化的缺陷，以Petri网的基本理论为基础，对传统模型的评价指标体系进行结构性调整，加入应急响应机制，提高模型的灵敏度和可靠性。

本课题的主要研究内容是构建基于隐患识别与响应建模的供水系统预警体系，在安全评价模型、在线监测系统优化布置及预警模型的构建上进行创新性研究。首先，在传统模糊综合评价模型的基础之上，利用Petri网络的基本原理，构建层次分析法层次关系树状网的逻辑规则，将“越阶效应”植入综合评价指标体系之中，使得评价模型可以对隐患因子进行识别，从而提升预警模型对前期由多种影响因素在正常范围内的细微变化经过时空积累和联合作用而导致后期突发爆发的突发式供水安全事故提出及时预警。其次，以满足突发式供水安全预警的要求为前提，利用流体力学基本原理建立供水系统分区模型，在模型的目标函数中体现突发式预警的特殊需求，以此为基础构建在线监测系统优化布置模型，降低运算负担和计算时间，提高搜索效率。最后，将预测模型与改进的模糊综合评价模型进行有机结合，构建出了基于隐患识别与响应的供水系统预警体系，对我国城镇供水系统供水安全预警提供一定的技术支持。