城市化进程中邻避设施风险可接受度的时空演变研究

Along with the acceleration of urbanization progress, it is inevitable to layout many NIMBY facilities, “Not In My Back Yard” to satisfy people’s various kinds of meet in city. For the increase of consciousness on health and environmental protection, many kinds of NIMBY conflicts become more and more acute and intent in many cities, especially because of the negative externality, such as environment pollution, damage to the health, real estate values reduction and reputation affection, which leads to all kinds of NIMBY conflicts in many cities. NIMBY facility’s negative externalities is temporal dislocation, which is the root of NIMBY. The public perception of NIMBY negative externalities will affect the strength of NIMBY conflicts, the key to solving NIMBY is to understand public’s risk perception and acceptability. According to the risk perception paradigm, the project uses a questionnaire survey to investigate the public’s NIMBY risk perception. First, the study constructs Structural Equation Model to analyze the factors-“perceiving usefulness, procedural justice, perceiving risk, trust in government, reasonable compensation and public participation” that may affect people’s NIMBY risk acceptability and the relationship between them. also personal character’s effect on the risk acceptability will be analyzed too. By investigating NIMBY risk acceptability between areas with different level of urbanization in Tianchang, Changshu and Nanjing city, the mechanism of urbanization on NIMBY acceptability time-evolving-pattern will be analyzed. Second, the NIMBY spatial effect influenced by risk acceptability will change in spatial range. The spatial-changing-pattern including three kinds of space, one is the scope will change in spatial range. The project will build the NIMBY effect spatial model of entities space consisting of the environmental impact range, visual images range, and risk threatening range. Then in city there exist a psychological safe space and physical security space. The relation of the entities space, the psychological safe space and the physical security space will be analyzed and the spatial multi-scenario simulation can be realized by GIS. And the typical types of NIMBY facility’s risk acceptability as gas station, viaduct and landfill will be used as point, line and area hazard. Then the time-evolving-pattern of risk acceptability in the process of urbanization and NIMBY effect space-changing-pattern can be found by empirical analyses. The results are to improve the risk acceptability for NIMBY facilities and may be of interest for policy makers to devise future NIMBY strategies.

城市邻避问题的根源是邻避设施负外部性的时空错位，公众对邻避负外部性的认知将影响邻避冲突的强度，解决的关键要了解公众的邻避风险认知和接受度。本项目采用问卷调查的方法，从公众和设施两个角度，构建包括“感知有用、感知风险、程序公正、冲突了解、合理补偿、公众参与、个人属性”等要素的邻避设施风险接受度结构方程模型，分析影响公众风险接受度的要素及相互关系。通过调查天长、常熟和南京居民的邻避风险接受度差异，分析城市化水平和邻避风险可接受度的相关机理；分析设施邻避效应的空间格局，探求包括 “环境影响范围、视觉影响范围、风险威胁范围”的实体性影响空间；心理影响范围反映的心理性影响空间；以及物理安全空间三者间的关系，以GIS为平台实现以邻避危险源为中心，邻避效应空间扩散模式模拟，并以加油站、高架桥、垃圾处理场分别作为点、线、面危险源，实证分析风险接受度在城市化进程中随时间的变化规律，以及邻避效应的空间演变格局

随着城市化的快速发展和城市规模的扩大，位于城市边缘区的设施以及多元化的设施进入到城市规划区内，城市中不可避免的出现了NIMBY(Not In My Back Yard)邻避设施，由于邻避设施效益全民共享，而风险却由邻近居民承担的“利益—风险”时空错位分布特征，使得城市中面临着日益频繁且激烈的邻避冲突。解决邻避冲突的关键在于两方面，其一为解决”效益——风险”的时空错位分布；其二为引导公众形成正确的风险认知。.为了研究公众对邻避设施的风险可接受度，本项目分别在常熟、天长、南京进行了问卷调查，分析不同类型邻避设施的风险接受度以及诸要素对邻避设施风险接受度的影响差异；并在南京市通过深度访谈和现场踏勘的方式调查了三类典型的点状、线状、面状邻避设施—加油站、高架桥、及殡仪馆等邻避设施的空间效应。.从风险的视角来研究邻避问题，构建邻避设施风险可接受度的结构方程模型，分析不同要素对邻避设施风险可接受度的影响路径。在此基础上，本研究运用特征价格法来分析“距邻避设施的距离”对邻避设施影响半径内“房价”的影响，表征了在不同要素影响下邻避设施空间效应的量度，并运用克里金空间插值法使得邻避效应得以直观的表达。.研究结论如下：.首先，不同类型邻避设施的风险接受度不同；不同发展阶段的案例地区则形成了不同的风险可接受度模型，不同要素的影响力也存在差异。此外，认知主体的性别、受教育水平以及家庭收入、居住地等状况也会影响公众的邻避设施风险可接受度。.其次，在空间上，随着邻避设施自身形状和体量的变化，在物理安全空间、实体影响空间、心理安全距离共同作用下，在近邻效应和轴向效应共同影响下形成了同心圆型、带型和斑块状邻避空间，在GIS地统计方法计算下，得出了邻避设施空间效应分随“距邻避设施风险源的距离”的增加而表现出减弱的趋势。.再次，在研究邻避设施的风险可接受度的基础上，给出了时间、主体、管理三维层面上邻避风险规避的措施与建议。