现期偏好视角下互联网消费信贷额度配置优化与风险防控

The purpose of this project is to study the intertemporal consumption decisions evolution, credit management, and risk prevention of individuals under internet consumer credit, from the perspective of behavior characteristics. Based on the credit limit and convenience of internet consumer credit, we try to establish an intertemporal consumption decision model, combined with the internal effect of present bias on the promotion demand for current consumption, and the external catalysis effect of internet consumer credit. In addition, this project examines the total consumption utility evolution mechanism of person with different behavior characteristics, in terms of intertemporal consumption optimization and its path-changing rule. The positive effects of smoothing intertemporal consumption and the potential negative effects of excessive credit consumption are described. On the basis above, this project analyzes the impact of present bias on credit consumption and the effect of current consumption allocation on changes in credit limit of the next stage, and then explores credit limit allocation models that incorporate behavioral characteristics. Combining with the analysis of time-inconsistent consumer behavior and the possibility of spurring excessive credit consumption from the convenience of mobile payment, this project identifies the credit risk sources and weights, forms the credit risk-adjusted interest rates, and analyses the effects of risk prevention and control. This project provides theory and method for the healthy development of internet consumer credit and enriches the theoretical system of risk identification, prevention and control.

本项目旨在从行为特征视角研究互联网消费信贷背景下个体跨期消费决策演变规律、信用管理与风险防控问题。项目以互联网消费信贷参与者为研究对象，在剖析互联网消费信贷以消费授信与便捷性特征基础上，将个体现期偏好对提升当前消费的内部需求作用与互联网消费信贷促进消费前向转移的外部催化作用结合，构建互联网消费信贷背景下跨期消费决策模型；基于跨期消费优化及其路径变化规律，分析不同行为特征个体总消费效用演变机理，刻画互联网消费信贷平滑跨期消费的正面效应和潜在引发过度信用消费的负面效应；在此基础上，剖析现期偏好对信用消费量影响，当期消费配置对下一期信贷额度变化作用，探索融合行为特征的信贷额度授信模式；结合时间不一致消费行为分析，与移动支付便捷性增大过度信用消费可能性分析，识别信用风险来源与权重，形成信用风险调整利率，分析风险防控作用，为互联网消费信贷健康发展提供理论与方法支持，丰富风险识别与防控理论体系。

互联网消费信贷是普惠金融重要方式，其给人们带来便捷金融机会、实现消费跨期平滑同时，也可能引发过度消费问题，衍生信用风险。本项目针对互联网消费信贷风险管理问题，围绕互联网消费信贷对跨期消费决策影响、信用风险调整定价、考虑现期偏好的信用风险防控策略等三个方面开展研究，取得了一系列进展。主要结果包括：(1)互联网消费信贷对跨期消费决策影响方面，从制定计划角度看，互联网消费信贷可有效平滑借款者跨期消费，提升总福利。然而，在实际决策中，因现期偏好影响决策者在行动时点实际用信和还款行为，表现为实际用信与还款比例偏离计划，呈现为更少还款和更多用信，这种行为倾向的实现导致末期接受过高还款成本和过低消费，总福利实际下降。(2)信用风险调整定价方面，经风险调整的折现率表现为三部分之和，无风险折现率，体现财富变动与风险偏好共同作用的客观层面信用风险溢价，以及源于自我控制问题的过度用信与现期偏好共同作用的主观层面信用风险溢价。(3)信用风险防控策略方面，在授信额度启用奖励比例和差别化还款利率匹配借款者现期偏好条件下，适当的调整授信额度与不同期限还款利率差可有效约束其按照原计划执行，降低计划消费信贷与实际消费决策行为的偏离程度，规避在第三期被迫承担过高信贷成本以及零消费的极端情形，实现风险防控。本项目从现期偏好视角揭示了不同类型个体互联网消费信贷行为差异，丰富了跨期决策相关领域研究；通过细分风险来源，建立信用风险调整折现率，拓展了风险调整定价理论研究；从授信额度调节和还款利率调节两个维度提出风险防控策略，拓展了消费信贷风控管理相关研究。项目研究成果有助于引导更多微观个体尤其尾部客群合理参与互联网消费信贷、享受数字普惠金融红利，推动金融机构充分发挥数字化技术优势，为用户提供匹配其偏好特征的信贷服务和产品、优化风控方法体系，为相关部门制定监管策略提供理论与方法参考。