多种诱导信息情境下突发公共事件舆情演进规律及其干预机制研究

The frequent happen of public emergency results in not only direct hazards to human society but also indirect hazards, e.g., stimulating social insecurity, due to the generation of multiple inducing information. Although in practice this phenomenon has been significantly obvious under the increasingly perfect all-media communication system, there is still lack of relevant research in the academic world. Accordingly, this project will be conducted to study how to identify the evolution law of public opinion towards public emergency under the situation of multiple inducing information, and how to choose the best time to make scientific intervention decisions. The goal is providing effective decision support to deal with the multiplex public opinion field that needs to be responded urgently. The study will start from the description of public risk perception, and then three parts will be studied, including the evolution and dynamic mechanism, evolution path and law as well as the intervention decision-making mechanism of public opinion towards public emergency under the situation of multiple inducing information. During this study, the theories and methods, such as multi-case study, evolutionary game theory, SIR modeling method, and decision theory under uncertainty, will be employed. The innovation appears with the integration of the public risk perception, special properties and derivative effect of public opinion towards public emergency. The difficulties mainly include describing the public risk perception, modeling the evolution process and embedding the “scenario- response” paradigm. Based on this project, 5 to 10 high-quality papers will be published in the academic journals at home and abroad.

频繁爆发的突发公共事件不仅给人类社会带来直接危害，还往往滋生多种诱导信息，存在激发社会安全事件等间接危害的风险。虽然实践中该现象已在日益完善的全媒体传播体系下体现得非常明显，但是学术界相关研究较为匮乏。本项目正是以此为切入点，研究如何辨别多种诱导信息情境下突发公共事件舆情演进规律，并选择最佳时机做出科学干预决策。研究目的是为亟待响应的多元民间舆论场的处置提供有效决策支持。研究将从刻画公众风险感知入手，分别考虑多种诱导信息情境下突发公共事件舆情的演进机理与演进动力学机制、演进路径与演进规律、干预决策机制三方面问题。研究过程中，将综合采用多案例研究、演化博弈论、SIR建模方法、不确定条件下的决策理论等理论与方法。创新点在于研究过程融入公众风险感知、突发公共事件舆情的特殊性质及其衍生效应。难点主要有公众风险感知刻画、演进模型构建、“情景-应对”范式嵌入。预期在国内外重要期刊发表论文5-10篇。

突发公共事件因具有突发性、危害性和演化不确定性等特征，往往会激发多种诱导信息，迫使决策者陷入响应多元民间舆论场的困境。因此，如何在突发公共事件爆发后快速辨别多种诱导信息情境下的舆情演进规律，并据此选择最佳时机以做出科学干预决策，是一个亟待解决的科学问题。本项目通过采用理论与案例相结合、机制设计与数理模型相结合、推演与仿真相结合的研究思路及多案例研究、系统动力学、随机Petri网、演化博弈论、模糊理论、SIR建模方法、不确定条件下的决策理论等理论和方法，设计了“演进机理与动力学机制→演进路径与规律→干预决策机制”的研究主线，开展了以下研究工作：1）通过收集案例资料、建立信息交互关系框架和系统动力学模型、提出随机Petri网模型及其等价同构的马尔可夫链、综述公众风险感知和谣言传播的既有研究，揭示了突发公共事件舆情的演进机理与动力学机制。2）通过建立不同风险感知群体竞争的Lotka-Volterra模型、多种异质舆情信息竞争的2SI2R扩展模型、多种同质舆情信息相互促进的3SI3R模型，厘清了突发公共事件舆情的演进路径与规律。3）通过从公众风险感知、多属性驱动下的公众满意度、决策者情绪影响下的异质参照点等视角研究干预方案的评估、动态适应性和时机选择等问题，搭建了突发公共事件舆情演进的干预决策机制。此外，考虑到突发公共事件舆情所具有的连锁反应特点，项目组进一步对“舆情-抢购”事件链危机的演化机理和动力学机制进行了研究。依托本项目，发表论文30篇（其中，SCI/SSCI检索13篇，EI检索2篇，CSSCI/CSCD收录期刊12篇）；出版专著1部；获得学术奖励2项；获批国家自然科学基金面上项目等项目5项。综上，本项目研究不仅有助于为决策者响应多元民间舆论场提供决策支持，还有助于为信息不对称环境下公众明晰舆情本质及决策者响应舆情所引发的连锁反应提供参考依据。