基于需求不确定的城市群低碳物流网络协同布局鲁棒优化

During the period of Economic New Normal development and process of urbanization of China, the total volume and structure of urban agglomeration logistics demand are both the uncertain characteristic. Meanwhile, there exists the troublesome logistics development situation with higher energy consumption and lower efficiency due to the lack of system integration toward logistics resource. .In view of the uncertain characteristics of urban agglomeration logistics demand Uncertainty and the difficult logistics development situations with low efficiency and high emissions, we will investigate the urban agglomeration logistics network collaborative layout problem using some novel methods, considering the need of low-carbon development and uncertainty of logistics demand in this project..Firstly, the logistics users’ choice behavior will be addressed using the random utility theory, in order to reveal the laws of logistics demand spatial equilibrium distribution. The decision-making behaviors of different agents and the interactive relationship among them will be analyzed by the theory of traffic network equilibrium analysis and uncertain optimization method. Secondly, a robust optimization model based on Stackelberg Game for logistics network collaborative design will be presented, which will determine the optimal number, size and the corresponding construction sequence of logistics infrastructures. Finally, we will address the integration optimization on the logistics network collaboration design of urban agglomeration and the corresponding low-carbon incentive measures, such as including logistics investment subsidies and CO2 emissions taxes. The collaborative layout optimization principle and low-carbon incentive mechanism will both be revealed by this research..This project aims to improve the theory and methods of urban agglomeration logistics network collaborative layout. Moreover, this proposal will also ensure the urban agglomeration logistics network design to be more scientific, reliable and forward-looking, which provides the theory foundation to guide the sustainable urban agglomeration logistics network development.

在经济新常态和城镇化战略推进过程中，城市群物流需求总量与结构呈现不确定的特征；与此同时，物流资源因缺乏有效整合而导致物流低效率与高排放的困境。针对城市群物流需求不确定的特征与低效率、高排放的现实困境，本项目拟从低碳与需求不确定视角，创新性地研究城市群物流网络协同布局优化问题。.在项目中，运用随机效用理论研究物流用户选择行为，揭示物流需求空间均衡分布规律；应用交通网络均衡理论与不确定性优化方法，研究不同利益主体的决策行为与互动关系，并构建基于主从博弈的物流网络协同布局鲁棒优化模型，优化确定物流基础设施的数量、规模、布局及其建设时序；将投资补贴与碳税等低碳激励措施引入物流网络协同布局优化，揭示城市群物流网络协同布局优化原理与低碳诱导激励机理。.本项目旨在丰富城市群物流网络协同布局优化的理论与方法，以增强城市群物流网络规划的科学性、可靠性和前瞻性，为我国城市群物流网络可持续性发展提供理论依据。

构建低碳而高效的物流网络是我国城市群发展过程中亟待解决的一个重要问题。基于此，本项目从低碳可持续视角研究不确定环境下城市群物流网络协同布局优化问题，其主要研究工作如下。. （1）城市群物流用户选择行为分析及其空间均衡建模研究。本项目从物流服务时间、服务价格和服务可靠性等方面分析不同物流需求用户在选择偏好，构建能反映其选择行为特征的计量分析模型，通过相应的案例研究，验证计量分析模型的有效性。. （2）基于随机需求的城市群低碳物流网络协同布局优化研究。考虑城市群物流需求离散情景，从系统最优的视角提出了城市群低碳物流网络协同布局的随机双层规划模型，设计了基于情景分解的求解算法，该算法将单纯分解算法嵌套逐步对冲算法以确定最优的物流网络布局方案。最后，通过数值算例验证该优化模型及其算法的有效性。. （3）基于低碳视角的城市群物流网络协同布局鲁棒优化研究。在分析城市群中不同利益相关者的互动博弈关系基础上，考虑城市群物流系统节能减排约束，构建城市群低碳物流网络协同布局鲁棒双层规划模型；推导得到了其相应的鲁棒对应模型，设计相应求解算法，并通过相应的数值算例验证了鲁棒优化模型的有效性。研究发现：该鲁棒优化模型能有效处理需求不确定的网络布局优化问题并降低计算复杂性。. （4）基于需求不确定的城市群物流网络多周期协同布局及其建设时序优化研究。本项目运用博弈论与实物期权理论研究需求不确定下物流园区最佳投资规模与投资时 序优化问题，构建了投资决策优化模型，优化确定物流园区投资时机与最佳投资规模。此外，进一步研究多周期、多目标城市群物流网络设计鲁棒优化问题，构建其相应的优化模型，提出了基于列和约束生成的全局优化方法，并通过相应的数值仿真实验和案例研究验证其有效性。. 本项目研究成果为我国城市群低碳物流网络协同布局提供新的优化理论与方法，丰富与完善低碳物流网络优化理论与方法。