多模型耦合下的玉米涝灾风险动态评价研究

In this project, taking the maize planting area of Jilin Province as the case study, waterlogging disaster which affect and restrict agricultural production and maize growth was chose as this study object. From the perspective of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, based on multi-source data, carry out the study of spatiotemporal distribution analysis, the mechanism of risk evolution and Identification of risk factors for maize waterlogging disaster. Finally, the multi-process, multi-attribute and multi-scale maize dynamic disaster risk assessment technology system based on remote sensing inversion model, hydraulic model, crop growth model and disaster risk assessment model was established, and the corn planting area of Jilin province and zoning of flood dynamic risk assessment, and carry out the research and assessment of dynamic risk waterlogging maize planting area in Jilin Province. Finally, put forward a targeted agricultural waterlogging disaster risk management and adaptive countermeasure system. The research results can be extended to other agricultural zone of China, and provide the theoretical basis and technical support for the agro-meteorological disasters prevention and mitigation and regional sustainable development. And it is of great significance for improving the research level and the ability of agro-meteorological disasters risk and management capabilities, as well as achieving the goal of scientific disaster prevention and active disaster reduction.

本研究以吉林省玉米种植区为研究区，选择影响和制约当地农业生产及玉米生长的涝灾为主要研究对象，从“土壤-植被-大气”系统出发，基于多源数据, 利用多学科交叉理论与方法，进行吉林省玉米种植区的玉米涝灾时空规律分析、风险演变机理、玉米涝灾风险因子变化辨识研究，建立基于遥感反演模型、水力学模型、作物生长模型和灾害风险评价模型相耦合的面向多过程、多属性及多尺度的玉米涝灾风险动态评价技术体系，并对吉林省玉米种植区进行涝灾动态风险评价及区划研究，最终提出针对性的农业涝灾风险管理与适应对策体系。研究成果也可推广到我国其它农业地区，为农业气象灾害防灾减灾规划和区域可持续发展提供理论依据和技术支撑，对于提高我国农业气象灾害的研究水平和风险管理能力,实现科学防灾和主动减灾的目标具有重要意义。

由于我国农业生产基础设施薄弱，随着极端天气气候事件的增多和农业单产提高，致使我国每年都有不同程度的洪涝发生，并造成严重损失。因此，深入评估吉林省玉米种植区不同生育阶段的玉米涝灾风险，既可以评估不同生育阶段涝灾的发生及其强度，还可以估算不同致灾强度可能造成的玉米产量的损失，为科学制定应急抗灾、减灾措施提供理论依据和技术支撑。本研究以吉林省为研究区，开展了吉林省极端降水事件识别、玉米涝灾致灾因子危险性识别和评价、脆弱性评价和风险评价研究，结果表明：结果表明吉林省东部地区降水量较为集中，吉林省地出现高温、强降水的概率较大。从雄穗期到成熟期，研究区内还观察到下降趋势。轻度旱涝灾害发生频率高于中、重度旱涝灾害。玉米全生育期内有效降水量总体呈现出从东南地区向西北依次递减的空间分布规律，降水量介于335.02~677.38 mm 之间，需水量空间分布则与之相反，吉林省东南区域处于水分盈余状态，雨涝频率呈现出东南地区生育前期和后期较高，而玉米发育期较低的空间分布特征。与此同时，吉林省中部地区玉米雨涝频率增速高于其他地区，吉林省玉米干旱重心向西北方向移动，玉米雨涝重心向西南方向偏移，中部地区玉米雨涝日数和频率显著增加，当R95p≥190mm，PRCPTOT≥610mm，R20mm≥7.6d时，会对气候产量产生抑制的作用。R20mm相比其他降水指数对气候产量的影响最大，为影响气候产量的主导因素。在相同的旱涝强度指标下，扶余和长春的联合重现期最短，通榆和乾安县的联合重现期最长，说明东部地区的农业洪涝灾害风险水平高于西部地区。本研究的顺利开展可为玉米生产合理布局及防灾避灾提供科学依据和数据支撑。