中国对外商品贸易中隐含资源转移时空特征、影响因素及政策优化研究

Foreign trade has become an important driver to promote China’s economic development. However, it also has aggravated resource depletion and environmental pollution. With the globalization of economy and trade, foreign trade promotes the commodity exchanges between countries. However, the essence of trade is to exchange different kinds of resources and environmental elements. Therefore, it is urgent to quantify the ecological benefits from China’s foreign trade and explore an optimal development pathway that will lead to the co-benefits of coordinating economy, resources and environment, facilitating sustainable trade and management on resources and environment, and guide the green transformation of economy and trade. Under such a circumstance, this project first identifies the evolutional path of China’s export/import commodities in the global trade network based on a complex network analysis model, and then develops an integrated accounting and evaluation system on embodied resources, covering both production and consumption perspectives based on input-output analysis, emergy analysis, life cycle analysis so that shift pattern of embodied resources in foreign trade can be revealed and ecological benefits involved in traded commodities can be explored. Both decomposition analysis and regression analysis approaches will be applied to uncover the driving forces that affect the evolution of import/export resources. Finally, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model will be applied to simulate and identify the optimal pathway of sustainable trade. Policies for sustainable trade and management of resources and environment will be raised by considering the Chinese realities.

近些年来，对外贸易成为推动我国经济发展重要引擎的同时也加剧了我国资源和环境的约束。随着经贸全球化，对外贸易虽然从表面上看是各国之间的商品交换，但本质上是商品背后的各类资源和环境的交换。因此，厘清我国对外贸易中生态利益关系，探索经济-资源-环境协同发展的优化路径对于我国经贸绿色转型以及资源环境可持续管理具有重要启示。本研究首先通过复杂网络分析模型识别我国对外贸易商品在全球贸易网络中的地位及演化轨迹；其次，基于投入产出分析、能值分析以及生命周期分析等方法构建生产视角和消费视角贸易中隐含资源核算及评估体系，揭示对外贸易隐含资源转移时空特征并确定贸易商品背后隐含的生态利益关系；然后基于分解分析以及回归分析等方法识别影响贸易商品中隐含资源转移的主要因素；最后，基于一般可计算均衡模型仿真优化我国对外贸易可持续发展路径，在经济、资源和环境协同发展框架下提出我国对外贸易以及资源和环境可持续管理的政策建议。

对外贸易是拉动中国经济增长的重要驱动力之一，本项目尝试以我国对外贸易中资源可持续管理为目标，识别我国重点贸易商品在全球贸易中的地位和竞争力；基于生产端和消费端双视角重点揭示我国对外贸易中主要隐含资源在国家以及部门之间的转移特征；进而识别影响我国对外贸易中隐含流转移的驱动因素；尝试在资源-环境-经济协同发展框架下模拟我国贸易结构以及贸易政策调整带来的影响。..本研究的主要结论如下：.1 识别我国关键性资源贸易商品在全球贸易商品网络中的演化轨迹和特征是确保我国生产安全以及资源安全的基础。.2 从生产端来看，相较于出口制成品，中国出口初级资源时转移的隐含资源较大。中国的隐含资源主要净输出到美国、日本以及欧盟。发展中国家以及不发达国家或地区是中国隐含资源净输入的来源。.3 从消费端来看，中国是主要的净虚拟水以及隐含能源的出口国，是净隐含土地的进口国。欧盟对于中国的资源消耗较高。.4 经济规模、收入效应、良好的外交关系以及贸易协定导致中国出口隐含资源的增长；技术效应可降低中国出口的隐含资源。.5 中国出口结构调整可实现中国经济、社会、资源和环境的可持续发展，但需要切实考虑最优调整模式。.6 中国对外贸易政策调整对于降低中国出口的资源和环境影响的不确定性较强，需要相关部门切实做好调整和防控。.