西南三省农村普惠金融可持续发展研究

The establishment of sustainable Development of Rural Inclusive Finance is an important theory and realistic task for the development of “the three provinces in southwest China”. It needs a breakthrough in two aspects: solving exclusive financial problem and promoting financial linkage. The two kinds of Hypothesis used in this research topic are: H1- every administrative villages have access to financial service can relief the peasants’ credit constraints. H2-the financial linkage between formal and informal financial organizations can increase the amount of peasants’ loan and decrease the interest rate. Accordingly, the method of cross-disciplinary is applied in the thesis. On the basis of survey data of 81 administrative villages in the three provinces in southwest China, the thesis mainly focuses on four aspects: (1) The hypothesis H1 is validated by logit regression analysis on basis of financial exclusion logic judging distinction, and construction of distinction modal of the peasants’ credit constraints, and analyses formation mechanism of the three southwest provinces financial exclusion. (2) The hypothesis H2 is validated by Stackelberg Modal on basis of practices of financial linkage. The thesis analyses the financial linkage mechanism and establishes influence factor equation. The financial linkage mechanism is validated by logit regression analysis. (3) The thesis establishes the Computation model of Index of Rural Financial Inclusion Sustainable Development (IRFISD) and evolutionary economic analysis framework, and analyses the formation mechanism of Rural Inclusive Financial System in the three southwest provinces. (4) According to the upper analysis, the paper puts forward sustainable public policies for sustainable Development of Rural Inclusive Finance. It has important theoretical and practical significance. It will also make important innovation to solve rural financial problem in the three southwest provinces.

实现农村普惠金融可持续发展，是西南三省发展的重大理论和现实任务。这需在两方面取得突破：解决金融排斥问题和促进金融联结。课题构建假设：假设H1，金融服务村村通能缓解农贷约束；假设H2，正规和非正规金融组织金融联结能促进农贷数量增加、利率降低。课题基于3省81个行政村调研数据基础，采用跨学科分析方法，主要研究：①根据金融排斥逻辑判分，建立成因视角的农贷约束判分模型，分析金融排斥的形成机制，用Logit计量验证H1；②根据金融联结的实践，建立Stackelberg模型验证H2，分析金融联结有效性；分析金融联结机制，用Logit计量验证其成因；③建立农村普惠金融可持续发展指数测度模型和演化经济分析框架，分析三省农村普惠金融可持续发展的形成机制；④基于上述分析，并结合以构建理论为目标的案例研究，提出农村普惠金融可持续发展的公共政策。课题研究理论和实践价值重大，预期能对解决农村金融问题做出重要创新。

实现农村普惠金融可持续发展，是西南三省发展的重大理论和现实任务。可持续性主要指商业可持续，其刻画了金融机构普及金融服务的可持续性，提高对县域和农村地区的支持，增加对中小企业的融资，必然会为金融机构银行带来一定的利润损失，商业可持续性正是保障了金融机构不以牺牲自身健康运作为代价来缓解金融排斥，从而能够让金融机构有动力长期保持对农村、中小企业提供融资服务。这需在两方面取得突破：解决县域和农村普惠金融落地问题和促进金融联结。课题构建假设：假设H1，金融服务村村通能缓解农贷约束；假设H2，正规和非正规金融组织金融联结能促进农贷数量增加、利率降低。课题基于3省的63个行政村调研数据基础，采用跨学科分析方法，主要研究：①根据金融排斥逻辑判分，建立成因视角的农贷约束判分模型，分析金融排斥的形成机制，用Logit计量验证H1，结论是实现金融服务村村通能缓解金融约束，促进普惠金融发展；②根据金融联结的实践，建立Stackelberg模型验证H2，分析金融联结有效性；分析金融联结机制，用Logit计量验证其成因，其结论是正式金融组织和非正式金融组织通过金融联结的普惠金融模式，能增加贷款总量，降低贷款利率。③建立农村普惠金融可持续发展指数测度模型和演化经济分析框架，分析三省农村普惠金融可持续发展的形成机制，其主要机制是利益驱使的动力机制和能力机制，；④基于上述分析，并结合以构建理论为目标的案例研究，提出农村普惠金融可持续发展的公共政策是：政府通过自愿性政策工具、强制性政策工具和混合政策工具的结合，按照政府引导、市场主导原则，构建企业法律制度、信用制度和支付结算制度等要素构成的普惠金融基础设施，培育服务对象金融素养和金融供给机构的开展普惠金融的能力，推动普惠金融高质量发展。本研究为如何持续发展西南三省的农村普惠金融提供了可落地的策略方案，可应用于国内其他省份的农村普惠金融发展规划借鉴。