基于复杂网络的航空延误传播机理关键技术及延误评价关键指标研究

With the rapid development of the civil aviation industry, massive flight delays also followed due to air traffic control, ground support and other causes. The actual operation of the Civil Aviation is a network which was formed by treating airport as nodes and linked by routes. If flight delays were not disposed of improperly, it will then affect its associated airports and cause next flight delay. How to segment and rate the severity of the flight delays; how to dig the rule of the flight delays; how to predict results and appropriate interventions to alleviate or eliminate flight delays is a hot spot of research.. To solve these problems, this project will collect actual data of the cities, airports, airlines and aircraft, then build aviation networks of four-levels and describe it with statistical indicators. While drawing on the transmission dynamics in complex network theory, and combined with the actual situation of the aviation network and the intervention regulations, try to dig out the spread laws of flight delays in the aviation network. Finally this project will establish a scientific evaluation index system for flight delays to evaluate the severity of flight delays and the effects of interventions in implementation. This project will provide strong supports for airports and airlines to grasp the rules of flight delays, the accurate division of the degree of flight delays and provide a reasonable response measures.

随着民航业的高速发展，由于空域限制、地面保障不畅等原因造成的航班延误随之而来。而民航的实际运营是以机场为节点，航线为纽带构所构成的复杂网络。因此航班延误处置不当会直接影响其关联机场运营及后续航段的任务执行。如何对航班延误的严重程度进行细分和评级；如何挖掘航班延误在航空网络中传播的规律；如何通过预测结果和适当的干预措施缓解或消除航班延误是业界目前研究的热点问题。. 针对此问题，本项目通过收集全国城市、机场、航空公司和飞行器的实际数据，构建出四个层次的航空网络，并刻画其网络特征。然后借鉴复杂网络中的传播动力学原理，结合航空网络运行动态,挖掘延误传播规律,并提出相应干预措施建议。最后，本项目建立起一套科学的航班延误评价指标体系，对航班延误的严重程度和干预措施的实施效果进行综合评价。从而为机场和航空公司掌握航班延误规律，准确划分延误等级和使用合理的应对措施提供有力的支撑。

随着民航业的高速发展，由于空域限制、地面保障不畅等原因造成的航班延误随之而来。而民航的实际运营是以机场为节点，航线为纽带构所构成的复杂网络。因此航班延误处置不当会直接影响其关联机场运营及后续航段的任务执行。如何对航班延误的严重程度进行细分和评级；如何挖掘航班延误在航空网络中传播的规律；如何通过预测结果和适当的干预措施缓解航班延误是业界目前研究的热点问题。. 针对此问题，本项目通过对富媒体数据中的信息抽取进行研究，在收集全国城市、机场、航空公司和飞行器的实际数据过程中开展了文本信息抽取和GPS信息抽取技术研究，构建出复杂系统核心信息网络，并对其进行飞行器移动网络建模和其他物体移动网络建模。然后借鉴复杂网络中的传播动力学原理，结合航空网络运行动态，挖掘延误传播规律，刻画出航空延误网络的演化特征，提出具有航空特性的延误预测。本项目的研究为采取缓解航班延误的干预措施提供了较为科学的理论依据，为民航业目前航班延误热点问题的研究提供了参考意见和研究经验。