用于气候预测的中国气候-植被分类模型研究

Based on the monsoon climate characteristics and vegetation distribution in China, the fundamental databases have been developed for this project, including climatic database from 1000 climatic observation stations, digitized vegetation map and digital vegetation generalization map with high resolution. The effectiveness and accordance of four popular climate-vegetation classification models (Penman model, Thornthwaite model, Holdridge Life Zone System and Kira model) for the geographic distribution of Chinese vegetation is compared by KAPPA agreement statistic method. The results indicate that: (1) Penman model could simulate the geographic distribution of vegetation in temperate steppe and Tibetan plateau with more than 0.50 of KAPPA value. It is the best one for Tibetan plateau among four models. (2) Thornthwaite model could give the better simulation for tropical rain forests and seasonal rain forests with 0.40 of KAPPA value. It might compensate the ineffectiveness of Holdridge Life Zone System in this area. (3) Holdridge Life Zone System is the best one among four models for simulating the geographical distribution of vegetation in China based on the first level of vegetation division in China. But it still fails to simulate west seasonal rain forests and rainforests (52), west temperate steppe (63), Tibetan plateau temperate desert (86) and Tibetan plateau temperate steppe (84). (4) Kira model simulates subtropical evergreen forest zone very well, and its KAPPA value in this zone is close to that of Holdridge Life Zone System. Also it could simulate moderately well the geographical distribution of vegetation in low elevation and humid/semi-humid area, but it would be far from the ground truth when it is applied to the regions of temperate desert and Tibetan Plateau. In terms of the selected model and indices, the Chinese vegetation classification has been given. It could provide the basic data for general circulation models(GCM) and global change study.

针对中国植被分布的特点，考虑到大气环流模式对植被类型数量的实际需要及其可能提供的用于判别植被类型的参数，建立适用于大气环流模式的中国植被分类系统和对植物生理活动具有明显限制作用的气候-植被分类环境指标体系，以及气候-植被分类模式，对提高大气环流模式对于中国气候预测的准确性和减小评估气候变化影响的不确定性具有重要的意义。