从资源到资本：中国奶业区域格局演化机理与政策选择研究

China's dairy industry has undergone a significant regional structural change since the early development. The dairy regional structural change affects special allocation of dairy resources ，therefore，impacts security of row milk supply. This study takes "dairy regional structural change" as the research core to analyse both of the impact and response systerm between the dairy regional reorganization and the four driving factors showing as resource, capital, market and policy.The main contents are as follows; Firstly, to indicate the characteristics of China’s dairy regional structural change in terms of both of the time and space dimensions. Secondly, to reveal how does the resource, capital, policy and market factors affect the regional structural change in China’s dairy industry. Thirdly, to explain feedback effect of regional structural change in China’s dairy industry on the four driving factors resbectively. Lastly, to identify both the routes and patterns of China’s dairy regional structural change when the regional distribution of dairy industry is endogenous . This research contributes not only to dairy regional specialization and row milk supply security improvement, but also to provide an important theoretical framework for coordinating the regional agricultural development.

奶业区域格局演化是中国奶业发展的重要特征。奶业区域格局演化影响奶业资源的空间配置和供给安全。本项目以“奶业区域格局演化”为研究对象，研究资源、资本、政策与市场对奶业区域格局演化的影响机理及奶业区域格局变迁对它们的反馈机制，进而得出中国奶业区域格局演化的路径与模式。研究内容为：（1）中国奶业区域格局演化的时空特征；（2）资源、资本、政策与市场等四大因素对奶业区域格局演化的影响机理；（3）中国奶业区域格局演化对资源、资本、政策与市场四大因素的反馈机制；（4）中国奶业区域格局演化系统内生条件下，其演化的路径与模式。本项目研究成果不仅有助于促进奶业区域专业化、确保牛奶供给安全，而且能够为区域农业协调发展提供重要的理论借鉴。

伴随贸易自由化、生产规模化以及城镇化进程，中国奶业区域格局正在由东北和西北等自然资源优势区域向华北资本和市场优势区域转移。本项目以“奶业区域格局演化”为研究对象，研究资源、资本、政策与市场等因素对奶业区域格局演化的影响机理及其反馈机制。研究结论表明：①直接效应方面，乳品企业加工能力、奶业优势区域政策与市场需求促进区域奶业集聚，而人口密度、交通基础设施以及奶牛单产促进区域奶业扩散；②空间溢出效应方面，政策因素和奶牛单产水平具有正的空间溢出效应；城镇人均可支配收入和人口密度呈现负的空间溢出效应；但是饲料生产以及乳品企业加工能力以及原料奶收购价格的空间溢出效应不显著。③中介效应方面，交通基础设施建设通过乳品企业资产集中度、农村人均可支配收入和常住人口集中度驱使奶业扩散。④重大食品安全事件引发的贸易效应也是奶业区域格局演化的诱因，奶粉进口增加导致省际奶牛存栏减少，奶业区域扩散。⑤中国奶业区域格局从资源向资本区域的转移，推进奶业由小规模散养奶户主导的资源导向型向大规模牧场集中养殖的资本导向型发展模式转化。中国奶业资本化提高了牛奶生产成本和资源环境压力，降低了中国奶业的国际竞争力，影响了产业长期可持续发展。最后，本项目从区域格局演化到产业发展模式选择的研究成果，不仅有助于促进奶业区域专业化、确保牛奶供给安全，而且有利于区域奶业经济、社会、资源环境协调可持续发展以及中国奶业国际竞争力的提升。