城市盾构隧道结构安全动态风险控制机理与方法

As the key component of urban underground engineering and lifeline projects, the risk associated with the safety of shield tunnels has become the focus of the government and the public in China. The current research and practice regarding engineering risk is subjected to a key deficiency in that while a lot of efforts have been exerted on risk assessment, little has been done for risk control. The objective of this project is thus to conduct both fundamental and application-oriented research such that the risk associated with the shield tunnels can be controlled, and that cost-effectiveness can be achieved during the risk management process. In this project, the mechanism of dynamic risk control of shield tunnels in a complex environmental with spatial-temporal coupling will be investigated based on detailed accident data analysis and random field modeling. The vulnerability and resilient strategy of shield tunnels will be studied with experiments and numerical modeling, through which a dynamic risk control model will be proposed. By WSN and Multi-source data fusion, methods for multi-scale and multi-dimensional monitoring will be investigated, and techniques for dynamic sensing and analysis of the risk will be developed. Finally, models for meticulous risk control and utility evaluation will be suggested, and robust methods for risk control of shield tunnels will be proposed considering various sources of uncertainties. The theories and methods developed in this project can not only be used for risk control, but can also be used to restore the post-accident shield tunnels to its original state with the ability of adapting to future uncertainties. This project will provide direct technical support for risk control of shield tunnels, and provide the theoretical basis for risk control of general unban underground projects.

作为城市地下工程及生命线的重要组成部分，盾构隧道安全风险已引起国家和社会的极大关注。针对当前工程安全风险理论和实践中“重评估、轻控制”的严重不足，项目以城市盾构隧道结构安全的风险可控化和成本合理化为目标，开展风险控制的基础理论和应用研究。采用风险事故分析和随机场理论揭示复杂时空耦合作用下盾构隧道动态风险控制的机理；引入可恢复性原理，采用实验和数值模拟研究隧道结构的易损性和险后恢复策略，构建动态风险控制理论模型；基于无线传感网络和多源数据融合分析，研究多尺度多维度监测方法，研发动态风险智慧感知分析技术；应用鲁棒性控制原理，研究精细化的动态风险控制及效用评价模型，提出不确定性环境条件下盾构隧道动态风险控制方法。项目的理论及方法不仅用于隧道安全风险的控制，还使隧道可恢复到事前安全状态，且能够适应事后不确定性的条件，为盾构隧道科学的风险控制技术提供支持，为城市地下工程灾害事故风险控制理论奠定基础。

针对城市地铁盾构隧道运营风险控制机理与方法的研究主题，科学系统地展开了相关基础理论和应用技术研究：首先，通过事故数据库统计、随机场理论分析和室内模型试验揭示了盾构隧道在工程各类扰动影响下的安全风险控制机理，提出了隧道结构变形时空性能演化的对数正态随机退化规律；第二，通过足尺管片接头荷载试验、精细化数值模拟，量化分析了土体微扰动注浆对既有变形盾构隧道结构性能恢复效率在3%-5%左右，结合工程可恢复性原理提出了考虑易损性、恢复效率的盾构隧道动态风险控制理论模型；第三，提出了基于维诺图的节点最优布设及数据分簇网络优化机制的低功耗无线传感网络技术，结合多源异构数据融合技术和贝叶斯网络框架建立了超长盾构隧道动态风险智慧感知与诊断技术；第四，通过大比尺模型试验和精细化数值模拟，研究了钢板内衬加固和粘贴芳纶布对既有变形损伤盾构隧道风险控制效用，基于岩土工程鲁棒性设计原理和改进非支配排序多目标优化遗传算法，提出以风险控制效用和成本为优化目标的不确定环境中盾构隧道鲁棒性加固设计方法。依托本项目的研究，项目周期内发表学术论文58篇，其中国际SCI期刊论文25篇，EI论文18篇，培养博士10名，培养硕士13人，开发面向城市盾构隧道结构的无线传感网系统1套、主编国家团体标准《基础设施无线传感网络监测技术规程》1部，出版专著2本，申请国家发明专利7项，开发并申请软件著作权2项。项目研究内容、研究目标与各项考核指标都按照计划严格执行，项目总体研究任务完成率100%，研究内容达成率100%，考核指标完成率超过100%。成果成功应用于上海地铁、长沙地铁多条区间隧道结构安全控制工程，特别是为上海地铁某盾构隧道突发堆载和突发渗漏事故整治工程提供了风险控制的基础理论支撑和技术方法指导，避免了重大险情事故发生。本项目成果具有较强的理论创新性和工程实用价值，可提升我国盾构隧道安全风险感控的整体水平，保障城市地下基础设施乃至城市安全。