中缅跨境复杂社会网络对缅北冲突的影响机制及边境安全防控体系研究

The Kokang conflict in Burmathat broke out in 2015 has evolved into an all-out conflict between the coalition North Burma and the Burmese government forces. The duration of the conflict, the amount of personnel invested, and the fierce fighting are unprecedented. The conflict had a significant impact on the security and stability in the China-Myanmar border areas. President Xi Jin ping pointed out when he met with the commander in chief of the Myanmar National Defense Force: "China respects the integrity of Myanmar's sovereignty and territorial and pays great attention to the security and stability on the border with China and Myanmar." Given the strength of both parties, ethnic armed forces have taken full advantage of the complicated cross-border social network that has long been established in the two border areas. Taking this as a starting point, this project intends to build two types of complex cross-border social networks between China and Myanmar through various methods in ethnography by analyzing the conflicts in northern Myanmar in three different periods and the border security between China and Myanmar, analyzes community structure, centrality, role, density and network characteristics of groups, and then explores the impact mechanism of complex cross-border social networks on the conflict in Myanmar. And based on this, this paper proposes a security prevention and control system in China-Myanmar border. This project has important theoretical significance for deepening the new understanding of the conflict in northern Myanmar and enriching the overall national security concept. And It has also important practical significance for safeguarding the security of our country's periphery and the economic interests of overseas,boosting the economic corridor between China and Myanmar, and implementing President Xi Jin Ping's overall national security concept.

2015年爆发的缅甸果敢冲突已经演变成缅北联合阵线与缅甸政府军之间的全面冲突，冲突持续时间之长、投入人员之多、战争之激烈前所未有。此次冲突对中缅边境地区的安全稳定产生了重大影响，国家主席习近平在接见缅甸国防军总司令时就指出：“中方尊重缅甸主权和领土完整，高度关注中缅边境安全稳定”。在双方实力悬殊下，少数民族武装充分利用了边境两地长期建立起来的跨境社会网络。以此为切入点，本项目拟通过对三个不同时期的缅北冲突和中缅边境安全分析，采用民族志研究方法构建两种类型的中缅复杂跨境社会网络，分析其社团结构、中心性、角色、密度、群体网络特征等，进而探讨复杂跨境社会网络对缅北冲突的影响机制，并据此提出中缅边境安全防控体系。本项目对深化缅北冲突的新认识和丰富总体国家安全观具有重要的理论意义，对维护我国国家周边安全和海外经济利益，助力推进中缅经济走廊，践行国家主席习近平的总体国家安全观具有重要的实践意义。

2015年爆发的缅甸果敢冲突已经演变成缅北联合阵线与缅甸政府军之间的全面冲突，此次冲突对中缅边境地区的安全稳定产生了重大影响。在双方实力悬殊下，少数民族武装充分利用了边境两地长期建立起来的跨境复杂社会网络。以此为切入点，本项目通过对缅北冲突和中缅边境安全分析，采用民族志研究方法构建了中缅跨境复杂社会网络，进而探讨了跨境复杂社会网络对缅北冲突的影响机制和对边境安全的影响，并据此提出中缅边境安全防控体系。研究得出重要的结果有：（1）中缅边境地区充斥着各种合法与非法“跨境流”，跨境复杂社会网络由各种各样关系构成，跨境空间广泛，贯穿于整个中缅边境地区并为民地武所掌控。跨境复杂社会网络中的各关系对网络的贡献和重要程度有着显著差异。（2）缅北地区是跨境复杂社会网络发生最密集的地区，也是缅甸武装冲突发生最多的地区，更是民地武组织分布最集中的地区，几者在空间上表现出明显的空间关联和空间叠置。（3）民地武充分利用跨境复杂社会网络获取生存性资料，达到其剿而不灭的生存目的。（4）跨境复杂社会网络对缅北冲突的影响机制有要素配置机制、生存决策机制、关联互动机制。（5）结合实地调研和访谈，定性与定量相结合的分析了中缅边境安全的时空演变。（6）中缅边境复杂社会网络对中缅边境安全既有积极作用，也有消极作用。（7）从中国、缅甸军方、少数民族武装、跨境民族、跨境婚姻等多元行为体互动、经济、毒品、武装冲突、安全等跨领域相互作用和缅北地区、中缅边境地区、中缅两国等跨尺度耦合方面提出了边境安全防控体系。本项目对深化缅北冲突的新认识和丰富总体国家安全观具有重要的理论意义，对维护我国国家周边安全和海外经济利益，助力推进中缅经济走廊，践行国家主席习近平的总体国家安全观具有重要的实践意义。