直觉判断矩阵排序理论及其在我国战略能源通道海洋环境风险评估中应用

Intuitionistic judgement matrices are a new tool used to express the decision makers' evaluation information about the alternatives or criteria in the process of decision making. Each element of an intuitionistic judgement matrix is composed of a membership degree, a nonmembership degree and a hesitancy degree, and thus it can describe the preference information of the decision makers over the alternatives or criteria comprehensively and detailedly. The intuitionistic judgement matrices have a wide application prospect in risk management, medical diagnosis, personnel appraisal, investment decision making, and military system effectiveness evaluations, etc. In this project, we will investigate systematically the priority theories of intuitionistic judgement matrices and their applications to marine environment risk assessment of China's strategic energy channels, which include the following contents: (1) This project studies the individual and group decision making problems respectively with intuitionistic judgement matrices; (2) This project studies the priority methods, the approaches to checking consistency, and the reverse order problems of intuitionistic judgement matrices; (3) This project studies the transformation relations between incomplete intuitionistic judgement matrices and the corresponding complete intuitionistic judgement matrices; (4) This project studies the decision making approaches with the multi-preference structures of various intuitionistic judgment matrices; (5) This project studies the interactive decision making methods based on intuitionistic judgement matrices; (6) This project establishes the analytic hierarchy processes and the analytic network processes based on intuitionistic judgement matrices; (7) The project applies the research results to construct the marine environment risk assessment models of China's strategic energy channels, and establish the corresponding decision support systems. Our results are predicted to be published in some well-known domestic and international journals (twenty international journal papers, fifteen domestic journal papers, and one book).

直觉判断矩阵是决策者在决策过程中对方案或准则进行评估的一种崭新工具，其基本元素是由隶属度、非隶属度和犹豫度构成，可以全面细致地描述决策者的偏好信息，它在风险管理、医疗诊断、人事考核、投资决策、军事系统效能评估等诸多领域有着广阔的实际应用前景。本项目将深入系统地研究直觉判断矩阵排序理论及其在我国战略能源通道海洋环境风险评估中应用。具体内容包括：研究基于直觉判断矩阵的个体和群体决策问题；研究直觉判断矩阵的排序方法、一致性检验途径和逆序问题；研究残缺直觉判断矩阵和完全直觉判断矩阵之间的转化方式；研究基于不同类型直觉判断矩阵的多偏好结构决策方法；研究基于直觉判断矩阵的交互式决策方法；建立基于直觉判断矩阵的层次分析法和网络分析法；将上述成果应用于构建我国战略能源通道海洋环境风险评估模型和研发相应的决策支持系统。预期在国际知名期刊发表论文20篇，国内核心期刊论文15篇，出版学术专著1部。

直觉模糊集是传统模糊集的一种拓展，在处理模糊性和不确定性等方面更具灵活性和实用性，有关直觉模糊集理论和应用的研究受到了国内外相关领域学者的极大关注。项目组对直觉判断矩阵排序理论及其在多准则决策中的应用进行了深入而系统的研究，取得了一系列原创性研究成果，如：（1）分析了直觉模糊信息环境下的信息集成、测度及聚类方法，进一步完善了直觉模糊信息融合理论；（2）提出了直觉模糊判断矩阵的一系列排序方法，详细研究了直觉模糊判断矩阵个体一致性和群体共识性，创建了直觉模糊层次分析法；（3）建立了基于直觉模糊信息的群决策和多准则决策理论和方法；（4）对直觉模糊微积分理论进行系统地梳理和研究，完善和丰富了直觉模糊微积分的理论；（5）首次提出了概率语言术语集，分类讨论了概率语言信息环境下的基本测度、偏好关系的一致性、决策方法，拓展地提出了概率犹豫模糊集，不确定概率语言术语集与概率向量语言术语集；（6）首次提出双层犹豫模糊语言术语集的概念，并对其运算规则、决策方法以及偏好关系的一致性进行了研究。此外，也对基于其它多种模糊信息(如：区间直觉模糊集、犹豫模糊集和犹豫模糊语言术语集)的相关理论和决策方法进行了深入的研究；把上述成果应用于海洋环境风险评估、医疗诊断、革新能源技术评估、地震紧急救援方案评估、水资源保护投资项目评估等诸多实际问题。