黄三角濒海区土壤盐渍化的尺度特征、变异机制及预测预警

Kenli County in coastal area of the modern Yellow River Delta is selected as the core research area in this project. Information of soil salinization and related natural and man-made factors is obtained through collection of the historical data, investigation and sampling, satellite remote sensing and GIS means. According to the features of the study area, scale characteristics of soil salinization will be studied with three key scales: the micro scale (field plot), the local scale (land use type) and the regional scale (study area). Furthermore, the influence factors of soil salinization are systematically analyzed, driving factors of soil salinization are determined, interaction among the factors and their relationship with soil salinization is explored, and the spatial and temporal variation mechanism of soil salinization will be clarified. On this basis, based on water and salt dynamics in soil profile, the relationship between land cover and salt content, and the regional temporal and spatial regularity of soil salinization, trend prediction and quantitative prediction model of soil salinization at different scales will be established. By analyzing the effects of soil salinization on main crops and its ecological impact, sensitive period and key parameters of soil salinization are determined, corresponding warning condition and warning level are classified, and early warning model of soil salinization at different scales will be set up. Based on the study, the multi-scale characteristics and variation mechanism of coastal saline soil will be clarified; forecasting and early warning of soil salinization will be realized. The results are expected to provide scientific basis for efficient utilization and management of saline soil resources in the Yellow River Delta.

以现代黄河三角洲濒海区垦利区为核心研究区，通过历史资料收集、实地调查观测与布点采样、卫星遥感和GIS手段，获取土壤盐分及其相关自然与人为因素信息；拟划分微域（地块）、局域（地类）和区域（研究区）三个关键尺度，研究土壤盐渍化的尺度特征；系统分析不同尺度土壤盐渍化的影响因素，确定土壤盐渍化驱动因子，明晰各因子间及其与土壤盐渍化的交互关系，探明土壤盐渍化的时空变异机制；在此基础上，基于土壤剖面水盐动态、地表覆被与盐分关系及其区域盐渍化时空规律，构建不同尺度土壤盐渍化的趋势预测和定量估测模型；分析土壤盐渍化对研究区主要作物生产及生态影响，明确敏感时期与关键参数，确定相应警情与警级，构建不同尺度土壤盐渍化的预警模型。通过研究，摸清濒海区土壤盐渍化多尺度特征及其变异机制，实现土壤盐渍化的预测和预警，为黄河三角洲盐渍土地资源的高效利用与管理提供科学依据。

土壤盐渍化一直受到广泛的关注，而濒海生态脆弱区的土壤盐渍化则是研究的热点之一。项目以现代黄河三角洲濒海区垦利区为核心研究区，利用实地调查观测、样品检测分析、土柱模拟试验、无人机及卫星遥感数据与方法，对土壤盐渍化的多尺度特征、变异机制及预测预警方法进行了系统研究。较好探明了濒海区土壤盐渍化的多尺度变异特征与规律，提出了土壤盐分快速准确获取的系列化精准遥感反演方法与模型，摸清了土壤水盐耦合关系及不同尺度的盐渍化影响因子，构建了土壤盐渍化区域、地类及剖面多尺度的驱动模型，探明了其多尺度驱动机制，在此基础上，提出了土壤盐分多尺度多层次的预测方法模型，提出了基于区域生态和作物产量影响的土壤盐分预警方法，实现了濒海区土壤盐渍化的预测预警。项目提供了濒海生态脆弱区土壤盐渍化系统研究的典型案例，在土壤盐分的快速精准获取遥感模型与方法、微域尺度盐分变异特征、多尺度土壤盐渍化驱动机制、土壤盐渍化预测预警等方面，提供了重要的学术参考，对于黄河三角洲盐渍土壤资源的高效利用与保护管理具有重要的实际意义。