雾霾合作治理多层网络有限理性博弈与机制设计研究

Owing to the cross-border pollution characteristics of haze, how to establish an effective mechanism to coordinate the interests of all regions and realize the joint governance of haze across regions is a prominent environmental issue to be solved in building a beautiful China in the new era...It is difficult to solve the haze governance problems for rational cooperative game due to the ambiguity of the information in the process of governance, and the limitations of the decision maker's cognitive ability, In the premise of “bounded rationality”, a multi-layer network game model of haze cooperation governance is constructed based on the heterogeneity of cities in the provincial and inter-provincial geographic locations. Based on the principle of stability and fairness, the strategies of multi-layer network game benefit allocation are studied. Based on the win-win principle of environmental benefits and social benefits, the multi-stage and multi-level emission abatement mechanism design is studied. Based on the win-win principle of environmental benefits and economic benefits, the multi-stage and multi-level taxation mechanism is studied; based on the uncertainty of the participation degree of the alliance and so on, this project studies the bounded rationality game and mechanism design of multi-layered uncertain network. The research results will be applied to the empirical study of haze cooperative control in "2+26" cities around Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transmission channel...The project theoretical research will enrich the theory of bounded rationality game theory and mechanism design, and its application research will provide theoretical basis and decision-making support for the effective implementation of haze co-governance in China and other developing countries.

由于雾霾的跨界污染特性，如何建立有效的机制协调各方利益，实现雾霾跨区域联合治理，是新时期建设美丽中国要解决的突出的环境问题。. 由于治理过程中信息的不确定性、决策者认知能力的局限性，完全理性博弈已不能很好解决雾霾治理问题。本项目假设局中人有限理性，基于各城市在省内、省际地理位置的异质性，构建雾霾合作治理多层网络博弈模型。基于稳定性与公平性原则，研究多层网络博弈收益分配策略；基于环境效益与社会效益共赢准则，研究多阶段多层次减排指标机制设计；基于环境效益与经济效益共赢准则，研究多阶段多层次税收机制；基于局中人联盟参与度等不确定性，研究不确定性多层网络有限理性博弈与机制设计。本项目研究成果还将应用于环京津冀传输通道“2+26”城市雾霾合作治理实证研究中。. 本项目理论研究将丰富有限理性博弈分析与机制设计理论，应用研究将为我国以及发展中国家的雾霾合作治理有效实施提供理论依据与决策支持。

本项目系统分析了基于地理位置的雾霾合作治理多层网络结构，构建了具有限制性的雾霾合作治理多层网络博弈模型特征函数，以揭示各区域治霾策略选择与局中人博弈类型之间的对应关系；提出了相应的雾霾合作治理博弈与收益分配策略，并基于浓度控制原则提出雾霾协同治理机制与税收补贴机制；详细探讨了中央与地方主导下的雾霾防治政策的优势与不足；完成了京津冀“2+26”城市雾霾合作治理实证或仿真应用研究；同时在企业层面对空气污染治理对策做了一定的探究。. 研究结论表明：当前京津冀地区施行的浓度减排指标不是很合理，合作是更为有效的治理方式，可有效降低雾霾治理成本；根据2015年环境统计数据，合作治理对比非合作形式的间接治理成本降低30.87%，且增加健康收益和经济收益约23亿元；传输因子导致的单个城市之间搭便车的健康效益较小；不论中央还是地方主导，减排政策的效果总会逐渐降低并最终失效，产业升级是雾霾治理的长效手段；项目对九个城市在有组织结构和地理结构限制下进行雾霾合作治理与无限制情况下的雾霾治理进行了实证分析，根据2010年统计数据研究发现无限制时总的环境治理成本比两限制结构下的合作减少了0.43亿元，这说明地理结构和组织结构限制了合作治理达到最优水平。. 本项目还通过京津冀实证研究论证了中央政府可通过可调税收和补贴，来确保大气污染治理的公平和效率；在不确定性环境下，建议根据各地区平均权重、经济能力偏好、治理责任偏好和治理潜力偏好分配减排配额，依据配额对成本的影响设置税率，以达到中央政府收支平衡并合理调节各地区的治理成本。本项目还进一步在企业层面研究了在不确定市场需求下碳减排配额政策和企业的风险规避策略，同时研究了不同权力结构下的环境政策对出口型企业污染减排的影响。. 项目研究成果为实现环境、社会、经济效益多赢的雾霾策略提供了理论依据与方法选择支持。已发表论文15篇（SCI/SSCI期刊论文8篇，中文期刊7篇）。