电子货币系统风险的定量分析与管理模式研究

abstract:The development of Internet, e-business and electronic money has weakened the influence of frontier factor on international trade, and boosted the process of financial globalization, which enhances the importance of interest rate to the financial policies. The real gap between interest rates at domestic and abroad will have much more influence on the real exchange rates than before owing to the tendency of assets substitution, while domestic financial policies will not be as efficient as before due to the tendency of money substitution. Both the amount and randomicity of money multiplier will increase when the application of electronic money becomes wide enough, while its restriction to money liquidity will be relaxed, which will have direct influence on the money supply. The main risks of internet payment are still credit risks and market risks. The method of MCMC estimated by VaR can be used for the quantitative analysis and empirical research of the systematic risks of internet payment. The allocation model of risk capital should be constructed to realize the maximization of capital utilities as a whole, to manage the risk of electronic money. Furthermore, the legal environment on the supply of information of electronic trades, the formulation of rules for the fair electronic trades and the establishment of reliable ensuring system for the electronic trades should be improved..

研究网络银行和电子货币的发展给传统银行业带来的主要问题和对策，以及为防范电子货币系统风险和金融企业经营决策提供帮助的数学方法、模型和专家系统，并设计出以风险管理为中心的经营管理新模式。从而提高金融企业的经营效益和竞争能力，揭示我国信息化建设中规避风险的普遍规律，为我国金融企业与国际接轨以及电子结算系统与国际联网提供参考。