高铁网络与城市关联发展的时空共生演化机理、模式生成和治理策略

As the High-Speed Railway (HSR) network in China continues to expand rapidly, we are still lacking of a deep understanding of the inter-relationship between the HSR network and urban interaction development. To address this current research gap, this project employs a complex and adaptive network view to examine the coupling relationship between the HSR network and urban development. By adopting a number of interdisciplinary means in regional economics, urban planning,complex network, and megaproject management, the spatial-temporal co-evolution mechanism of the HSR network and urban development is revealed. Internal and external contextual influences are also considered in conducting this research.The following four studies are carried out in this project: (1)To explore the spatial-temporal network structures and pattern characteristics in the formation and evolution of the HSR network in China based on a meta-structured analysis that examines the connection strength and the network spatial-temporal measurement method;(2) To study the complex network forming method, network aggregations, and evolution characteristics of urban interaction development relating to the HSR network based on a modified urban gravitational model;(3) To investigate the spatial-temporal co-evolution process, the dynamic effect, and the pattern generation mechanism of the HSR network and urban interaction development considering contextual influences and diversity differences; (4)To propose multi-governance strategies and policy recommendations by coupling the HSR network planning with its related urban interaction development forecasting.The study not only has profound theoretical significance in the understanding of the inherent influence between the mega-infrastructure network and regional development, but also provides valuable practical implication for China’s future HSR network planning, urban development, and regional economic development strategies.

我国高铁网络快速扩张，但我们对其与新形势下城市关联发展的互动关系还缺乏深刻认识。课题将高铁与城市间关系视为相互耦合的复杂适应性网络，利用区域经济、城市规划、复杂网络及重大工程管理等跨学科理论和方法，考虑内外部情境影响，围绕二者之间的时空共生演化规律，开展以下研究：（1）基于多元结构化数据库，建立连接强度和网络时空结构测度方法，探寻我国高铁网络形成和演化的时空结构及模式特征；（2）基于修正的城市引力模型，研究高铁条件下城市关联发展的复杂网络构建方法、网络聚合及演化特征；（3）考虑情境影响的多样性差异，研究高铁网络与城市关联发展的时空共演化机理、动力学影响及模式生成机制；（4）结合未来高铁规划，进行其与城市关联发展的趋势预测，提出多元治理策略和政策组合建议。成果对于丰富重大基础设施、区域发展和城市规划理论具有借鉴意义，也对我国高铁规划建设、城市发展和区域经济发展策略的制订具有实践价值。

中国是全球建成高铁里程最长的国家，高铁网络快速扩张，改变了中国的区域和城市发展格局，但我们对高铁与城市之间的互动发展关系还缺乏深刻认识。基于复杂性学科等理论，课题将高铁与城市间关系视为相互动态耦合的复杂适应性网络，围绕任务计划书，开展了系统性研究。主要成果包括：（1）利用复杂网络理论与方法，构建了我国长周期高铁网络形成和演化的时空结构和模式特征，包括基于Space-L和Space-P两种模式下的对比分析，并选取了中原、珠三角、长三角和京津冀的典型城市群网络进行了演化分析；（2）基于改进引力模型，形成了高铁城市网络的构建与分析，形成了基于多中心性的城市关联发展模式分类方法，并提出了分类发展建议；（3）形成了“城市—高铁”复合网络构建方法，通过生成网络模型GNM探寻了网络空间和拓扑结构对“城市-高铁”复合网络的生成机制及关键驱动因素，并进行了长三角实证，分析了人口、距离、传递性等影响因素的敏感性。课题共在Cities等期刊发表论文4篇，SSCI/SCI在修在投3篇，1篇获期刊年度优秀论文，1项教育部科技进步一等奖，完成专著和译著各1本（待出版），完成了2位研究生培养，开展了学术交流。成果对于丰富重大基础设施、区域发展和城市规划理论具有借鉴意义，也对我国高铁规划建设、城市发展和区域经济发展策略的制订具有实践价值。