人类活动影响下陆生哺乳动物空间格局分析与潜在生境模拟方法研究

With the rapid development of the economic and society in China, the scale and intensity of human activities keep increasing, putting wild life at a threat to its existence and accelerating its extinction. It could lead to irreparable effect on ecosystem and sustainability. With the advantages of GIS in spatial-temporal data acquisition and analysis, interdisciplinary research of zoogeography and geographic information technology is scientific significant to enrich GIS theories and zoogeography researches. This project takes mainland China as the research area, and takes terrestrial mammals as the research objects. This project focuses on species geographic patterns, driving factors, and corresponding spatial analysis methods. Based on systematic arrangement of species distribution survey data, the spatial distribution analysis on species, population structure, and species diversity is applied from species, genus, family, and order. According to the endangered category of species, endangered species’ hot distribution areas area detected. Using spatial statistics and analysis methods (i.e. geodetector), zoogeography regionalizing methods are explored. Driving mechanism of species distribution patterns are revealed by spatial correspondence between species diversity and key habitat factors. This project follows a basic flow to build a simulation method of potential habitat under the influence of human activities: distribution range prediction, habitat accessibility analysis, and human activity interference. Potential distribution range of species is predicted using improved maximum entropy model; by combining high-resolution terrain and ground feature data with dispersal potential of model species, habitat accessibility models are improved; a spatial evaluation model on human activity interference is established based on socio-economic features data (i.e. residential areas, road network, land use, population, etc). A GIS modeling tool is designed and developed, which has functions including distribution pattern analysis of species diversity, driving factors analysis of species distribution, hot spot analysis of endangered species, accessibility analysis of habitats, interference analysis of human activities, potential habitat analysis, etc. The tool could offer technological means for biodiversity conservation planning, wildlife and its habitat conservation planning.

随着中国经济社会快速发展和人类活动强度不断提高，野生动物生存面临严重威胁。借助GIS在时空数据分析等方面的优势，开展其与动物地理的交叉研究，对深化GIS应用、丰富动物地理研究手段有科学意义。项目以中国陆生哺乳动物为研究对象，在系统整理物种分布调查数据基础上，从种、属、科等多层次进行物种及多样性空间格局分析，探测濒危种、特有种热点分布区；运用地理探测器等空间统计方法，研究物种多样性与生境因子的空间相关特征，揭示物种分布格局的驱动机制；以分布范围预测-生境可达性分析-人类干扰评估为主线，基于最大熵生态位模型预测物种潜在分布范围，结合高精度地形地物数据构建生境可达性模型，利用居民点、道路网、土地利用等数据，建立人类活动干扰度空间评估模型，形成一套人类活动影响下陆生哺乳动物潜在生境分布的模拟方法；研发GIS动物地理分析工具集。评估及研发成果可望为野生动物及栖息地保护规划等提供依据和技术手段。

人类活动影响下的物种多样性格局和潜在生境模拟研究，对深入理解全球变化背景下动物地理分布及其形成机制、开展生态系统评估与生物多样性保护等有重要科学意义和应用价值。项目以中国陆生哺乳动物为研究对象，系统整理了物种分布记录与观测资料，综合GIS空间分析、地理过程模拟和生物信息技术，探索建立了一套考虑人地交互模式和环境特征的动物地理空间分析与生境模拟技术方法。主要研究成果包括：（1）设计了一套能有效表达动物地理分布的空间数据模型，分别从物种分类属性、复杂网络模式下的物种空间关系、动物地理分区等角度开展了大尺度陆生哺乳动物空间格局分析；（2）通过整合气候、地形地貌、土地利用和植被等多类型环境因子数据，在考虑地理异质性和尺度效应的基础上建立了揭示物种分布影响机制的空间统计模型；（3）构建了耦合多源空间数据的野生动物栖息地人为干扰强度评估方法，包括基于夜光遥感数据和贝叶斯层级模型的人类活动强度量化模型、基于出行大数据和最大熵模型的人为干扰强度评估方法；（4）设计了顾及复杂地表环境的生境空间可达性模型，构建了基于地表累积阻力的野生动物适宜生境斑块探测方法；（5）开展了人类活动干扰下的陆生哺乳动物潜在生境模拟研究，建立了基于复合空间网络的全域地理环境生境作用模型。项目研究已发表学术论文14篇，其中SCI/SSCI论文9篇，申请发明专利3项（已授权1项），培养研究生9人，其中3人取得博士学位，3人取得硕士学位。项目成果涉及动物地理空间数据建模、物种空间格局分析、人类活动干扰评估和潜在生境模拟等方面，对地理信息技术在濒危物种及栖息地保护等领域的应用有重要价值，也可为区域生态安全政策制定等提供理论支持。