考虑风光火储协调运行的山西电网新能源消纳能力评估与提升策略研究

The existing assessment method of renewable energy integration cannot meet the application requirements of the power grid with the large-scale renewable energy integration in the field of planning, scheduling and decision-making. This project provides the renewable integration assessment method and the improvement decision of Shanxi power grid considering the coordinated operation of the wind power, the solar energy, the thermal power and the storage aimed at overcoming the limitation of the traditional renewable integration assessment method in the simple renewable output model, the single assessment time interval and the incomplete assessment theoretical system. Firstly, the renewable output model is proposed accurately based on the space-time correlation. Furthermore, the highest integration model of the coordinated operation of the wind power, the solar energy, the thermal power and the storage is built considering multi-factor constraints. Then, the renewable integration assessment theory with entire-time scale is provided based on the Monte Carlo simulation. The algorithm is studied thoroughly to improve the solution speed according to the self-adjustment theory of simulation time interval. Also, the comprehensive assessment theory system of the renewable integration in power system is proposed based on entire-time multi-level assessment theory. The project aims at the breakthrough in the assessment theory of renewable integration, which is capable of evaluating and analyzing the ability of the renewable integration in Shanxi power grid. It will contribute to the renewable integration improvement in Shanxi power grid. The improvement measures are provided.

现有的新能源消纳能力评估方法已无法满足含大规模新能源的电网在规划、运行和决策等领域的应用需求。本项目旨在突破现有新能源消纳能力评估方法中新能源出力模型简单、评估时间尺度单一、评价指标体系不完整的局限，提出考虑风光火储协调运行的山西电网新能源消纳能力评估方法及消纳能力提升策略。首先，考虑出力的时空相关性，建立更为准确的新能源出力模型，并进一步建立考虑多因素约束的风光火储协调运行最大消纳能力模型。然后，在评估技术和算法方面，基于蒙特卡洛模拟法提出全时间尺度的新能源消纳能力评估框架，并通过仿真时间步长自调整技术加快求解速度。在此基础上，基于全时空尺度分层评估思想，构建电力系统新能源消纳能力的综合评估指标体系。项目力争在新能源消纳能力评估理论上有所突破，并将之应用到山西电网，准确地评估和分析其新能源消纳能力，对山西电网提出有针对性的改进措施，以全面提高其新能源消纳水平。

大力发展新能源，提高电网新能源消纳能力是实现我国能源清洁低碳转型的必由之路。现有的新能源消纳评估方法已无法满足含大规模新能源的电网在规划、运行等领域的应用需求。本项目针对考虑风光火储协调的复杂电网新能源消纳能力评估的难题，从电力系统新能源消纳能力模型、评估方法及综合评估指标体系等方面开展了系统深入的研究，主要研究内容包括：建立了考虑时空相关性的新能源出力概率模型与计及多种复杂约束条件的电力系统新能源最大消纳能力模型；提出了基于蒙特卡洛模拟的新能源消纳能力全时间尺度评估方法；进而构建了基于时空分层思想的新能源消纳能力综合评估指标体系；首次提出了基于随机潮流的新能源消纳能力快速评估方法，突破了以往研究因考虑因素片面、评估指标单一而导致无法准确评估及有效提高新能源消纳能力的局限。并将研究成果应用于山西电网，从而切实解决山西电网大规模新能源并网消纳难题。. 项目在国内外核心学术刊物发表论文12篇（含1篇录用），其中SCI检索论文1篇，SCI待检论文1篇，EI检索论文8篇，中文核心期刊2篇，申请发明专利2项，培养博士研究生3名，硕士研究生3名。项目负责人别朝红教授被评为2018年度教育部长江学者特聘教授，研究成果获2019年陕西省科学技术进步奖一等奖。