省际经济增长分布在空间关联效应下的趋同机制研究

The study of the convergence mechanism of the provincial economic growth is of great importance for the implementation of the regional economic coordinated development strategy in China. On this background, the project intends to answer: what's the status of the convergence of the provincial economic growth? What are the mechanisms of convergence or divergence of the provincial economic growth? How to find the effective convergence policies? Although studies have been made from different perspectives and in various methods by scholars on economic disparity and economic convergence problems, however, due to the complexity of convergence itself and the limitation of different research methods, we still need to be extend the research in the following three aspects: (1) dynamic of the distribution (instead of a single index) of the economic convergence; (2) evaluation of the contribution of various economic growth factors to economic convergence(rather than to economic growth); (3)evaluation of the effect of spatial factor in the convergence mechanisms in the framework of imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale(instead of neoclassical growth theory). Therefore, based on the distribution dynamics of the provincial economic growth, this project discussed the impact of spatial association, spatial agglomeration and diffusion mechanisms on convergence dynamic of provincial economic growth, and evaluation the roles and contributions of economic factors (especially spatial factors) in the convergence, thus provide basis for regional convergence policies making.

研究省际经济增长的趋同机制对于我国区域经济的协调发展战略实施有重要意义。本项目拟在此背景下回答：省际经济增长的趋同现状如何？省际经济增长趋同或趋异的机制是什么？如何找寻有效的趋同政策？尽管学者们从多个角度、用多种方法对经济差距和经济趋同问题进行了研究，但由于趋同问题本身的复杂性和不同研究方法的局限性，使得我们仍有必要在下述三个方面做进一步探讨：（1）对经济趋同的整体分布（而非单一指标）的状态描述；（2）各经济影响因素对经济趋同（而非对经济增长或经济差距）的贡献确定；（3）在不完全竞争和规模报酬递增的新经济增长框架（而非新古典增长理论）下，空间关联和空间集聚在趋同机制中的效应确定。因此，本项目是以省际经济增长分布为研究对象，研究在空间关联和空间集聚扩散机制下省际经济增长分布的趋同动态，并确定各经济影响因素（特别是空间因素）在经济趋同中的作用和贡献大小，从而为区域趋同政策的选择和制定提供依据。

本项目从趋同动态、趋同机制和经济增长异质性等三个方面研究了省际经济增长的趋同主题。构建了空间非参数分布动态模型，从中国省际、地区、地级市等三个方面研究了收入分布的趋同动态规律。用空间杜宾模型研究了地级市的经济增长影响因素；研究了不同规模下城市服务业的相同影响因素的异质性作用；中国城市经济发展的溢出效应和空间关联异质性。按照收入来源对城乡收入进行分解，找到趋同来源；对影响城乡收入差距的各因素进行分析；从产业发展角度分析了收敛机制；用趋同贡献度分解和面板分位数回归研究了省际经济的经济增长趋同的影响因素，并进行了相关政策的探讨。