中蒙边境高火险区的森林草原火时空演变机制及蔓延趋势预测模型研究

Forest and grassland fire is a major disaster that is frequent in the China-Mongolia border(Alshan area). Its response to natural and man-made disturbance mechanism and emergency response is the core content and international frontier of forest and grassland. However, due to the complexity of regional differentiation and driving mechanism, the understanding of the response mechanism needs to be further studied. The project selected in the high-risk forest grassland area, based on the remote sensing data, ground observation data, spatial analysis coupled cellular automata model, trying to ①Regionalization Calibration Based on Multi - source Remote Sensing Data Coordinated Ground Observation Data, accurately characterize the fire trace and the space - time dynamics; ②To clarify the forest and grassland fire and natural and man-made disturbance response mechanism from different time scales, regulation mode and mechanism of forest steppe ecotone and identification of fire prevention and control; ③Based on the spatial analysis of multi - source data, the probability of occurrence of fire risk is identified, and the trend model of forest grassland fire is constructed by coupled cellular automata to realize fire risk assessment and early warning. The innovation of this project lies in the identification of the uncertainty of the application of multi-source remote sensing data in forest grassland fire, the parameterization method of multi-source data spatial analysis coupled cellular automata model, and the response of natural and human disturbance to forest grassland fire response. This study will provide a scientific basis for the monitoring and early warning decision of China-Mongolian border fire risk.

森林草原火是中蒙边境（阿尔山地区）频发的重大灾害，其对自然和人为扰动机制及应急预警响应研究是森林与草原区域关注的核心内容和国际前沿。然而，由于区域分异和驱动机制的复杂性，该响应机理认识有待深入。本项目选取中蒙高火险森林草原区，基于遥感数据、地面观测数据、空间分析耦合元胞自动机模型，试图①基于多源遥感数据协同地面观测数据的区域化校准，准确刻画火迹特征及时空动态；②从不同时间尺度厘清自然和人为扰动的响应机理，识别森林与草原交错区火险防控的调控模式和机制；③基于多源数据的空间分析，辨识火险发生概率，并耦合元胞自动机构建森林草原火蔓延趋势模型，实现火动态风险评价与预警。本项目创新之处在于辨识多源遥感数据在森林草原火应用的不确定性，研究多源数据空间分析耦合元胞自动机模型的参数化方法，识别自然和人为干扰作用下对森林草原火响应中的作用。本研究将为中蒙边境火险的监测与预警决策提供科学依据。

森林草原火是中蒙边境（阿尔山地区）频发的重大灾害，其对自然和人为扰动机制及应急预警响应研究是森林与草原区域关注的核心内容和国际前沿。草原火的燃烧和蔓延机理直接关系到草原火预测预警、草原火生态环境影响评价以及管理等政策的制定与实施。要解决上述问题，就必须对草原火行为进行深入全面的定量研究。本项目选取中蒙高火险森林草原区，基于遥感数据、地面观测数据、空间分析耦合元胞自动机模型，对草原火行为开展研究，主要通过对内蒙古不同草地类型的可燃物进行野外调查和室内燃烧试验，分析内蒙古草原可燃物燃烧特性、草原可燃物时空分布、草原火时空特征，对火灾碳排放量进行估算。再基于草原火燃烧实验对草原火行为模型参数本地化处理，构建适用于内蒙古草原火行为模型，利用Python程序语言基于CA和GIS技术实现对草原火蔓延的模拟以及进行牧户尺度的草原火灾风险评估。本项目创新之处在于辨识多源遥感数据在森林草原火应用的不确定性，研究多源数据空间分析耦合元胞自动机模型的参数化方法，识别自然和人为干扰作用下对森林草原火响应中的作用。本研究将为中蒙边境火险的监测与预警决策提供科学依据。