搜寻匹配视角下中国城市住房市场供需错配机制研究

The co-existence of ‘high vacancy rate’ and ‘unsatisfied inhabitants’ is a problem of supply-demand ‘mismatch’ in China’s urban housing market, of which symptoms can be found spatially, structurally, in form as well as in quality. Theoretical and empirical studies have been done based on the individual symptoms of ‘mismatch’, while the discussions on the misunderstanding, delays, and etc.in the decisions of demand-side and supply-side due imperfect information of the market during the transaction process, is far from enough. Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides（DMP）search and matching theory is the cornerstone for the macro equilibrium analysis in the frictional market with the micro behavioral foundation, however, there is a lack of research with the consideration of market frictions in rental and sales housing market, to focus on mechanism of demand-supply ‘mismatch’ in China’s urban housing market due to the imperfect information. . The research aims to extend and contextualize the DMP theory in China’s urban housing market, with the consideration of market frictions in rental as well as sales housing market to combine the rental and sales housing market in the analytical framework, to build the search and matching behavioral foundation for the market equilibrium analysis for the mechanism of supply-demand ‘mismatch’ due to the imperfect information. In addition, with the theoretical mechanism as well as the statistics from the housing markets in representative cities, dynamic simulations for the evolvement of the housing market and policy scenarios will be conducted in order to provide the strategic policy suggestions to mitigate the ‘mismatch’ problem and facilitate the efficient matching of supply and demand in China’s urban housing market.

中国城市住房市场存在严重的“有房无人住”及“有人无房住”的供需错配矛盾，表现为空间、结构、形式和质量上的多维度错配现象。已有研究针对单独的错配现象做了丰富的理论和实证研究，但对市场信息不完美带来的供需主体决策交易过程中的误判、滞后等错配形成机制的探讨相对局限。DMP搜寻匹配理论是信息不完美的摩擦市场下从微观决策基础到宏观均衡分析的理论基石，但尚缺乏针对中国住房市场的供需错配问题，构建租赁和销售市场双重摩擦机制下的租售一体化搜寻匹配理论模型。. 本课题将DMP搜寻匹配理论拓展应用于我国住房市场中，考虑住房租赁和交易市场的摩擦性特点，将租售市场纳入统一分析框架，以微观搜寻匹配行为基础构建宏观市场供需匹配均衡机制的视角剖析供需错配现象，并以该理论机制构建住房市场供需匹配动态演化模拟和政策情景仿真，为改善错配问题，促进住房市场供需有效匹配的政策制定提供理论基础和决策支持。

中国城市住房市场存在严重的“有房无人住”及“有人无房住”的供需错配矛盾，表现为空间、结构、形式和质量上的多维度错配现象。已有研究针对单独的错配现象做了丰富的理论和实证研究，但对市场信息不完美带来的供需主体决策交易过程中的误判、滞后等错配形成机制的探讨相对局限。本课题将搜寻匹配理论拓展应用于我国住房市场中，以微观搜寻匹配行为基础构建宏观市场供需匹配均衡机制的视角剖析供需错配现象。.通过对买卖双方搜寻匹配行为机制的理论构建，研究发现投机型卖方对未来的趋势过度乐观使得保留价格提高，从而导致市场流动性下降，空置房源难以得到匹配; 另一方面，因投机型买方的搜寻成本较刚需型买方的搜寻成本更低，导致投机型买方的成交价格更低成交速度更快，从而刚需型买方难以匹配到低价的房源。在对议价能力的研究中发现刚需型购房者的议价能力低于改善及投资型的购房者的议价能力，同时刚需买方相对于投资型买家有着更低的首付比例和更低的贷款利率，这种相对低成本的融资方式反而会增加买方的出价，进而增加刚需者住房交易价格造成了市场错配。.进一步地对住房市场量价影响因素的实证研究发现，市场供给方面，在缺乏政府干预机制下，租差机制引导的市场住房开发，会形成城市高价值区域的过分集中，抬高土地价格，进一步加大空间和社会的不平等问题；市场需求方面，在房地产市场上涨期间，人们更关注具有溢价性质的景观要素，而在市场平稳期人们更关注住房的基本结构性特征。住房市场量价不仅受城市内部因素影响，住房市场存在城市间的复杂网络联动关系，其中一些中小城市扮演着传递房价波动的重要中介者作用。.调控政策上，研究发现限制性政策抑制流动性比抑制价格的效果更突出，但也只是短期有效；而房产税改革会降低投资性购房需求、增加刚性购房需求以缓解市场错配，但房产税改革会对社会投资和家庭消费产生负面影响。.本研究基于搜寻匹配理论，从微观行为机制，中观市场量价波动，宏观政策效果三方面为探索住房市场调控的长效机制提供了理论基础和决策支持。