自生锚、外在锚与中国企业海外并购股权决策研究

In the complex and uncertain environment, decision makers tend to adopt the irrational heuristic decision method instead of time-consuming intensive information analysis. Anchoring is the most common heuristic in the fuzzy situation judgment. There are insufficient information and high uncertainty in the overseas mergers and acquisitions. Under these circumstances, senior managers may be inadvertently affected by the anchor information, and make sticky decisions. However, the researches on overseas M&A ownership decision are mainly based on the rational paradigm, which are lack of attention to important irrational factors. This study investigates the anchoring effect in Chinese enterprises overseas M&A equity decision. Enterprises pre-overseas M&A as a self-generated anchor and international M&A in the target industry of the host country as an experimenter-provided anchor affect decision-making. Chinese enterprises overseas M&A equity decision demonstrates self anchored effect, external anchor effect or double anchor effect. Further, from the perspective of situational uncertainty, individual knowledge and cognitive state, we systematically analyze the moderating factors of the anchoring effect on overseas M&A equity decision, and propose interventions to avoid or minimize anchoring bias. This study is of referential significance for understanding the anchoring effect of overseas M&A decision and the prevention of anchoring bias.

在复杂、不确定的环境中，决策者倾向采用非理性的启发式代替费时的密集型信息分析。锚定便是模糊情景判断中最普遍的启发式。在信息不足、不确定性高的海外并购中，高层管理人员可能在无意中过度受到锚定信息的影响，做出粘性的决策。然而已有关于海外并购决策的研究主要基于理性范式，对重要的非理性因素锚定信息关注不足。本研究探讨中国企业海外并购股权决策中的锚定效应。焦点企业之前的海外并购作为自生锚，东道国目标行业的国际并购作为外在锚影响企业决策，使海外并购股权决策呈现出自生锚效应、外在锚效应或双锚效应。进一步地，从情景不确定性、个体知识技能及认知状态角度，系统梳理中国企业海外并购股权决策中锚定效应的调节因素，并提出相对应避免或减少锚定偏差的干预措施。本研究对于理解海外并购决策中的锚定效应以及预防锚定判断偏误具有借鉴意义。

在信息不足、不确定性高的海外并购中，高层管理人员在无意中过度受到锚定信息的影响，做出粘性的决策。基于中国企业海外并购样本，本项目采用Hedonic两阶段法与Tobit模型实证检验中国企业海外并购股权决策中的锚定效应。研究表明，并购方以往的国际并购股权水平作为自生锚，对企业国际并购股权决策具有正向影响。东道国先前的国际并购股权水平作为外在锚，对焦点企业国际并购股权决策具有正向影响。决策情景中仅存在自生锚时，海外并购股权决策呈现自生锚效应；仅存在外在锚时，海外并购股权决策呈现外在锚效应；同时存在自生锚和外在锚时，自生锚效应更强。海外并购经验显著减弱了锚定效应。决策环境不确定越高，锚定效应更强。高管繁忙对海外并购股权决策中锚定效应的影响不显著。有偏的股权决策导致中国企业在海外并购后难以进行有效整合。本研究对于理解海外并购决策中的锚定效应以及预防锚定偏误具有借鉴意义。