耦合家庭结构变迁过程的乡村聚落重构:空间演化、功能转型与优化路径

Family is a fundamental and independent unit of living and production in rural areas. The dynamic characteristics of family scale, population and livelihood imply inner mechanism of rural settlement evolution, and reflect farmers’ realistic demands. However, the existing village-town planning pays more attention on spatial distribution and scale change of rural settlement. The adaptability and matching relations between rural settlement reconstruction and family structural change have been ignored. This project plans to take typical villages and towns in Wuhan Urban Circle as study areas. The action mechanism of family structural change to rural settlement evolution is explored based on the analysis of variation characteristics of family structure. Both evolution rules of rural settlement and multi-objective decision rules are acquired based on three levels, including village-town, rural settlement and family, and the optimization paths of these two rules are further discussed. An adaptive reconstruction model is built to provide important decision support for policymakers and planners to reconstruct rural settlement more scientific and reasonable. This study puts forward a new view of rural geography by combing family structure change with rural settlement reconstruction. It aids in our understanding of both evolution mechanism and rural reconstruction in space and function, and provides theoretical and methodological support for rural settlement reconstruction in spatial distribution and functional optimization.

家庭是农村最基本的、独立的生产和生活单位，其规模、人口和生计结构动态特征，深刻蕴含着乡村聚落演化的内在机理，直接反映了农户对乡村聚落空间与功能的现实需求。然而，现有城乡统筹背景下的村镇规划过多关注聚落空间布局与用地数量增减关系，忽略了乡村聚落重构与家庭结构变迁的适应性和匹配关系。本项目拟选取武汉城市圈典型村镇进行实证研究，在家庭结构变迁时空特征测度的基础上，深入探讨家庭结构变迁对乡村聚落演化的作用机制；面向村镇、居民点和家庭三个层次，挖掘乡村聚落时空演化规则与不同层次联动规则，分析这两类规则在聚落重构中的协同优化路径，构建耦合家庭结构变迁过程的乡村聚落重构模型，探讨面向农户分化过程和结构化需求的乡村聚落重构路径。本项目有效融合了家庭结构变迁与乡村聚落重构的研究体系，将深化对乡村聚落演化动因及其重构内涵的理解，为乡村聚落空间优化和功能提升提供理论与方法支撑。

现有城乡统筹背景下的村镇规划过多关注乡村聚落空间布局与用地集约水平，忽略了家庭结构变迁对乡村聚落空间和功能重构的内在需求，带来了乡村聚落布局的简单机械集中和功能混杂的现实问题。本项目基于农村家庭人口、土地和产业变化，构建了农村家庭结构变迁与乡村聚落重构的关联框架，分析了乡村聚落时空演化特征及其影响机制，面向村镇、居民点和家庭层次，构建了顾及农村家庭结构与村镇体系特征的乡村聚落重构模型，提出了乡村聚落整治分区方法与重构路径。研究结果表明，家庭规模小型化助推乡村聚落规模扩张，人口老龄化加速乡村聚落结构演化，生计多样化促进乡村聚落功能转型。乡村聚落演化具有明显的尺度分异特征，在地块尺度，地形起伏度、水源可达性、道路可达性和城镇可达性是乡村聚落演化的主要驱动因子；在县域尺度，人均粮食产量和土地城镇化率对乡村聚落面积演化产生较为显著的影响。结合农村家庭内在需求与村镇体系特征，分别构建了顾及村镇体系特征的乡村聚落智能优化配置模型、顾及教育医疗设施可达性的乡村聚落优化配置模型、耦合乡村人-地-业结构特征的乡村聚落重构模型以及基于机器学习算法的农户搬迁行为模拟模型，通过不同类型村镇的多场景模拟应用验证了模型的适用性，有效解决了当前乡村聚落重构中空间指向性不明和多目标难以协调的技术难题。本项目提出了一种顾及多维特征的渐进式乡村聚落整治分区方法，将乡村聚落有效识别为城郊融合、特色保护、集聚提升和搬迁撤并四类，并明确了不同类型乡村聚落优化策略；项目构建了政策绅士化和资本化、生计产业化和多元化、空间有序化和集约化的乡村聚落重构路径，为乡村聚落规划重构提供了重要指引。.项目取得预期研究成果，公开发表科研论文16篇，其中SCI/SSCI论文6篇；授权国内外发明专利2项，出版学术专著1部，获得国土资源科学技术二等奖1项和江苏省自然资源管理优秀调研报告一等奖1项，参加国内外学术会议11人次，培养博士研究生2名，培养硕士研究生5名。