考虑行程时间可靠度的城市干道信号控制优化方法研究

Traffic signal control is a cost-effective way to make better use of the existing capacity of urban road networks. At present, traffic signal benefits are not fully realized. For instance, travel time reliability has seldom been taken into account in urban signal control optimization.Increasing travel time reliability means improving traffic safety, transportation system efficiency and life quality of travelers. This research proposal proceeds from travel time reliability and takes the urban road system as the research object. Different methods and techniques will be adopted in the project, such as stochastic modeling，MATLAB simulation, VISSIM simulation， theoretical derivation combined with real data validation. Firstly, we will start with analyzing the underlining mechanisim of urban arterial travel times and how traffic signal control and stochastic traffic characteristics influence urban travel times; Secondly，a travel time distribution model will be developed and travel time reliability measures which are applied for signal optimization will be proposed; Thirdly, a multi-intersection, multi-objective optimization model which considers travel time reliability will be established； And finally, a hybrid algorithm combining Ant Colony Optimization and Genetic Algorithm will be developed to solve the multi-objective optimization model. The final results of this research can contribute to the state-of-the-art of the theory and practice of travel time reliability and traffic control optimization. Furthermore, the results could provide a better way to improve travel time reliability of urban road networks.

交通信号控制是提高城市交通网络容量利用率的有效方法之一。目前，交通信号控制的潜在效益还未充分发挥，例如：在交通信号控制优化研究中极少考虑行程时间可靠度。提高行程时间可靠度意味着改善交通安全性、提高交通运输系统效率和出行者生活品质。本项目从考虑行程时间可靠度出发，以城市道路交通系统为研究对象，采用随机建模分析、MATLAB和VISSIM仿真以及理论推导与实际数据验证相结合的方法，开展以下研究：1.建立城市道路行程时间内在机理分析方法，以揭示交通信号控制、随机交通特性对行程时间的影响规律；2.构建动态行程时间概率分布模型，在此基础上建立适用于信号控制优化的行程时间可靠度指标；3. 构建融合行程时间可靠度的多交叉口、多目标信号控制优化模型；4. 设计蚁群遗传混合算法求解多目标函数。项目研究有助于丰富城市道路行程时间可靠度和交通信号控制优化的理论和方法，为提高行程时间可靠度的研究提供了新思路。

城市路网中交叉口的运行效果直接影响到整个交通系统的效率。国内外绝大多数研究中主要从减少交叉口延误、排队长度或停车次数等对交叉口信号控制方案进行优化，极少考虑旅行时间可靠性。本项目从考虑行程时间可靠度出发，首先分析了城市道路行程时间可靠度机理；其次，提出了城市道路行程时间分布模型，对模型参数进行校正和验证,并通过K-S检验分析模型估计的行程时间分布模型与VISSIM仿真得到的行程时间分布模型吻合程度；构建了以提高行程时间可靠度和减少平均行程时间为目标的多目标信号控制优化模型；并设计改进的遗传算法求解目标函数。本项目通过VISSIM仿真分析和长沙市实际路网验证，表明提出的城市道路行程时间分布模型能较好地反映实际路网的行程时间可靠性，提出的多目标信号控制优化模型与TRANSYT、SCATS等信号优化模型相比，提高了行程时间可靠性，同时也降低了路网平均行程时间。本项目的研究成果丰富了城市道路行程时间可靠度和交通信号控制优化的理论和方法，为提高行程时间可靠度的研究提供了新思路。