社会养老保险政策对于我国生育率和经济增长的影响

The demographic trend in China has shown a clear pattern of population aging, which becomes a server issue for China. It is commonly believed that parts of the reasons should include both the fast economic growth in the past several decades and the structural change of the cultural attitude along the economic development. While these factors are certainly powerful in explaining the observed trend of demographic change, various government economic and social policies have also played significant roles. The so called one-child policy, adopted initially in the early 1980s, is one of them. After more than three decades of strict implements of this population control policy, China now is facing the big challenge of the raising dependency ratio. In comparison with those advanced economies, some people characterize China as a country of “becoming old before getting rich”. ..With this background, this research project aims to study another important government policy, the social security policy, focusing on its impacts on the demographic change. These impacts are very useful in evaluating the implements of the social security policy, but are neglected by the main stream studies in the literature. Specifically, we construct a general equilibrium model with endogenous growth and fertility choices, building on the special social preference towards children in China, namely, to raise children to provide old-age support. Based on this model, we then introduce various government policies, in particular, the one-child policy, the social security policy to answer these following questions. (1) What are the effects of social security policy on fertility? (2) What is the optimal social security policy? (3) How should the current one-child policy be revised to promote economic welfare?

我国的老龄化问题日益严峻。原因既包括经济社会发展和文化观念变迁，也包括政府各项经济和社会政策的影响。我国自1980年代以来实施的计划生育政策，使得我国的人口年龄结构发生了巨大的变化。随着计划生育出生婴儿的父母一代人逐步进入老龄阶段，我国的社会抚养比例大幅提高，相对于发达国家的经历，我们提前进入“未富先老”的发展阶段。在前述大背景下，本研究关注另一项重要经济社会政策——社会公共养老保险，对于我国人口结构的影响。这些影响对于评估社保政策非常重要，但是在以往的相关研究中没有得到应有的足够重视。本研究基于“养儿防老”这一切合我国国情的经济文化偏好，构建了一个刻画经济增长和生育选择的一般均衡模型。在此基础上，引入社会公共养老保险政策，试图回答如下问题：（1）社保制度对于生育的选择有何影响？（2）什么是最优的社保制度？（3）现行计划生育政策有何改进空间？

我国的老龄化问题日益严峻。原因既包括经济社会发展和文化观念变迁，也包括政府各项经济和社会政策的影响。随着我国逐步进入老龄阶段，社会抚养比例大幅提高，相对于发达国家的经历，我们提前进入“未富先老”的发展阶段。在前述大背景下，本研究关注一项重要经济社会政策——社会公共养老保险，对于我国人口结构的影响。这些影响对于评估社保政策非常重要，但是在以往的相关研究中没有得到应有的足够重视。.. 本研究基于“养儿防老”这一切合我国国情的经济文化偏好，构建了一个刻画经济增长和生育选择的一般均衡模型。在此基础上，引入社会公共养老保险政策，试图回答如下问题：（1）社保制度对于生育的选择有何影响？（2）社保制度对于我国的长期经济增长有何影响？.. 基于模型分析，我们发现：（1）社会养老保险税对生育率的影响依赖于一个重要参数——跨期替代弹性。如果跨期替代弹性较低，社会养老保险税更有可能降低生育率；反之，社会养老保险税更有可能增加生育率。（2）经济增长对生育率的影响也依赖于跨期替代弹性。如果跨期替代弹性较低，经济增长更有可能增加生育率；反之，经济增长更有可能降低生育率。.. 本项目研究成果包括发表1篇SSCI英文论文，接收待发表1篇SSCI英文论文，3篇英文工作论文。